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GeistBaoh

CrowFall player Population...1million, 5million, 10 milllion or under 750k?

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50-150k on release, could go up higher or drop dramatically depending on word of mouth. If they screw up early access, almost guaranteed death sentence.

 

I'd like to see 250k+ but I doubt there will be enough interest. I don't remember what the numbers for the first few months of Darkfall was, but I don't think it exceeded 150k-200k concurrent players(I could be wrong about that). They also had to stagger their EU release due to piss poor handling of payment management system.

Edited by helix

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Thought it would easily get past 1million if combat kept progressing after the first year... but with the soft release strategy we don't really know when a full release will happen so the growth will most likely be a lot less rapid since people will be getting in with a less finished product initially.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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It was never going to get anywhere near 1 million any point in the near future. They would literally have to catch lightning in a bottle to pull off that feat. This game from the outset was probably set to be a steady grower. 100,000 would be a good benchmark to get things going in a good direction.


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50-150k on release, could go up higher or drop dramatically depending on word of mouth. If they screw up early access, almost guaranteed death sentence.

 

I'd like to see 250k+ but I doubt there will be enough interest. I don't remember what the numbers for the first few months of Darkfall was, but I don't think it exceeded 150k-200k concurrent players(I could be wrong about that). They also had to stagger their EU release due to piss poor handling of payment management system.

 

These are probably the most realistic numbers in the thread.

 

My guess is a month or two after release we will see less than 100k players,  and that will be split across at least 3 regions.

 

The best part of the CF design is that server "merges and resets" are built in!  There won't be any cries that the game is dying cause they are merging servers after launch.  It's bloody genius IMO.  When the pop starts to thin so will the amount of available campaigns popping up.

 

As long we are not killing the same groups of people over and over and ACE is making enough to keep afloat i will be happy!


"Float like a Butterfly.... Sting like a Misplaced Decimal Point" - Xarrayne 2018

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I really doubt we'll see a massive population at launch since Crowfall doesn't have any features with easy mass market appeal. They don't have an IP like Star Wars or Warcraft, don't have crazy visuals, don't have a giant feature list etc.

 

However if ACE does right by Crowfall I think the game could grow into something pretty neat. Even if the game's launch is rocky I doubt we'll see the giant exodus that occurs with most MMOs a month or so after launch. Most of the Crowfall backers I've seen have pretty realistic expectations for what the game is going to be and aren't expecting the second coming of Christ like the people that backed Star Citizen. 

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If ACE can deliver everything they promised in a great quality, we could get to 400.000 players at launch at the end of 2017, when the game is in a state where it should be for an official release. And maybe  even more "active" players over time when the game is a great experience, like we are imagining it to be.

 

For Star Citizen, if they can deliver, I guess over 10 million players at release, being the biggest MMO at that time. And over time I guess more players than any other game, thats not free to play, ever had. Or maybe even including League of Legends, meaning surpassing player numbers of LoL. WoW and LoL could be put into the shadow of Star Citizen, and if they can deliver, I am almost certain that this will happen.


After EverQuest Next is gone, its Star Citizen for me.

 

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I really doubt we'll see a massive population at launch since Crowfall doesn't have any features with easy mass market appeal. They don't have an IP like Star Wars or Warcraft, don't have crazy visuals, don't have a giant feature list etc.

 

However if ACE does right by Crowfall I think the game could grow into something pretty neat. Even if the game's launch is rocky I doubt we'll see the giant exodus that occurs with most MMOs a month or so after launch. Most of the Crowfall backers I've seen have pretty realistic expectations for what the game is going to be and aren't expecting the second coming of Christ like the people that backed Star Citizen. 

Action combat is trendy right now, pvp is trendy right now, survival games are trendy right now.

 

It has/had the potential to be a huge hit... but obviously their budget and team size will have an impact on what they can crank out... but most importantly their design decisions as far as what kind of combat they offer.

 

Survival games are all the rage, h1z1 even did well and that was crap, dayz did well... arma does well with its survival mods.

 

Crowfall has/had the potential to pull players from many different popular genres... it still has it but it really does all revolve around combat.

 

They have their vision, but I have to believe that if they truly want a pvp centric game eventually they will truly cater to skill mattering, and move past the niche (not a good niche) market that they initially attracted simply due to past projects. 

 

What people will eventually realize is that you actually want a really high skill ceiling not only for the sake of pvp popularity amongst the elite, but because it lets non combat roles become more defined.

 

It's much more epic when someone uses pure political tactic to succeed in a game where skill matters, than it is for him to bypass combat skill when it matters less.

 

Like how troll would it be if some guy that absolutely sucked at pvp was able to use his charisma to win a campaign?  That's the scenario you want to be possible, one where the godliest pvper ever may be able to use his prowess to build power and clout, but the worst pvper ever may be able to beat the godliest pvper ever through other tactics.

 

You don't want a game with a low skill-ceiling, trust me, it just lessens the significance of everything.

Edited by VIKINGNAIL

Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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Glad to see some realistic heads around here. OP's original desires of over a million are kinda out there. I agree we'd hit around the 500k~ mark max maybe.

 

 

If ACE can deliver everything they promised in a great quality, we could get to 400.000 players at launch at the end of 2017, when the game is in a state where it should be for an official release. And maybe  even more "active" players over time when the game is a great experience, like we are imagining it to be.

 

For Star Citizen, if they can deliver, I guess over 10 million players at release, being the biggest MMO at that time. And over time I guess more players than any other game, thats not free to play, ever had. Or maybe even including League of Legends, meaning surpassing player numbers of LoL. WoW and LoL could be put into the shadow of Star Citizen, and if they can deliver, I am almost certain that this will happen.

 

I really dislike throwing numbers around with no reason leash at all. Big doesn't mean good. Also, Star Citizen will need to cater to casuals to get 10 million people because that's what all the other super large MMORPGs did to get those numbers and it's the very same reason why Crowfall won't.

 

LoL gets its numbers, again, for the very exact same reason. Despite being very competitive, it has strong casual elements. Bot modes, fairly quick games that are easy to jump into, a wide variety of champions i.e. Teemo for those cute seekers and skins to match. Hard to imagine my friend who thinks Teemo is adorable and loves to play Lux would ever touch Star Citizen.

 

I'm sure Star Citizen will be very popular and one of the bigger games, but I doubt it's going to overtake games like LoL any time soon, if ever.

Edited by Cerulean Shaman

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Without fear or haste, on bedding made of solitude and silence.

 

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Not sure why you need millions to be successful. The devs cited 50,000 as a reasonable objective to keep the game up and running.

 

Considering campaign servers are likely to cap out around 2500-3000 (assuming offline accounts don't count towards cap), your servers will feel full with that many players. 100,000 is sort of irrelevant unless you plan on losing and jumping ship early when it's clear you suck and are going to lose. You'll have more options to go elsewhere but that's about all you'll gain with a higher player count.

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Another thing to consider is how they're going to advertise for soft launch, a decent chunk of the MMO community has at least heard the mention of Crowfall but I highly doubt the general gaming community has even come across the title.


Sugoi ! - Head of Disciplinary Committee


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I think people are pretty naive if they don't think crowfall could have gotten millions with decent combat and a normal release.  Even games like archeage had people chomping at the bit... People want sandboxxy type stuff, they want pvp, they want survival too...


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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I was happy to hear that 50,000 subscribers would be enough to sustain the game's continued development. That seems quite realistic for the near term.

 

The soft launch strategy sounds like a plan to intentionally start small (no hype marketing), find a niche playerbase, and then grow it over time like EVE's successful trajectory. Hopefully CF will end up within the 200k-500k subscriber range eventually.

 

The upside to doing a big budget, hyped-up launch would be to sell many copies of the game initially (300k+?) and get a big infusion of cash. The downside to this approach would be many players having a bad experience because of things like long queues, laggy servers, and a much higher chance of players not liking the game vision ("where are the quests?" "someone took my stuff!" "why don't monsters drop gear?") and creating on overall negative market feeling about the game. And not many of those players subscribing and continuing to play.


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Yea I suppose the largest I concern I have for the Crowfall team is its size. If they go into launch with a small development team like this, it directly impacts the pace at which they can release patches and address issues. 

 

200,000 sounds like it would require a significant development team to support, and I just don't know if those players will stick around while they wait for a smaller/slower development team to address the issues.

 

It's almost better if they simply restrict the number of copies they sell at launch, to better control the pace of introducing players. That'd never fly though. They'd be turning down money and would get laughed out of the industry.

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Glad to see some realistic heads around here. OP's original desires of over a million are kinda out there. I agree we'd hit around the 500k~ mark max maybe.

 

 

 

I really dislike throwing numbers around with no reason leash at all. Big doesn't mean good. Also, Star Citizen will need to cater to casuals to get 10 million people because that's what all the other super large MMORPGs did to get those numbers and it's the very same reason why Crowfall won't.

 

LoL gets its numbers, again, for the very exact same reason. Despite being very competitive, it has strong casual elements. Bot modes, fairly quick games that are easy to jump into, a wide variety of champions i.e. Teemo for those cute seekers and skins to match. Hard to imagine my friend who thinks Teemo is adorable and loves to play Lux would ever touch Star Citizen.

 

I'm sure Star Citizen will be very popular and one of the bigger games, but I doubt it's going to overtake games like LoL any time soon, if ever.

 

Sure its speculation.

But most customers come when the product is there, at release.

Star Citizen having already 1.4 million customers now, if the game gets released and can deliver you can multiply this at minimum with 8 till 10. Because there are very likely 8 to 10 size the people still waiting and having interest into this game when its launched. Around 5 size the people people are having already interest now but dont wanna cash in, and around 5 more dont know already that they will have interest into the game and buy it at launch.

 

Also Star Citizen is very much suitable for Casuals. How do you define "Casuals"? Casuals are for me people who like to play games superficial, with not too much of an investment of time, effort, competetive intention. Star Citizen isnt difficult to play and isnt competetive if you dont want to. Star Citizen is just offering almost everything, thats because its something for everyone, because its just offering so incredible many possibilities. You will be able to do almost everything in Star Citizen, so there is very much stuff for just everybody in Star Citizen, also completely new stuff that just didnt exist in games before.

 

League of Legends on the other hand is really difficult to learn and play, also its very competetive. I was playing strategy games since Command and Conquer, Civilization, Endless series and Warcraft, and I am really enjoying all the Indie strategy games these days, but LoL was just too difficult/unappealing for me to get into, and I am not too much of a Casual player in my opinion. LoL gets its player numbers because its free to play and such a success in Korea and E-Sports, I guess. But LoL really isnt a game thats an easy entry for Casual gamers, really not.

 

Crowfall and Star Citizen are much more friendly to a Casual approach of gaming.

I am not interested into space games really. I only played Star Fox 64/Rogue Squadron on my Nintendo 64 an thats all, and these arent even a space games. At first I wasnt interested into Star Citizen, but when I learned about the game and what the game is going for, it was just amazing. Star Citizen isnt just a space game, its almost everything, its soo sooo incredible much. At one point in development maybe you will even be able to never have to leave a planet and can play your whole time on a single planet or change to another planet, but not in space if you dont want to. Like in every other game you will be able to just play on a planet, if thats what you want to.

 

Crowfall is kinda like Guildwars 2 WvW, due to coming to really like this aspect of GW 2, I became interested into Crowfall when it was revealed. And Crowfall having almost no limits for different campaign worlds, there will almost certainly be "casual friendly" campaign worlds as well. And also there are the Eternal Kingdoms.

 

I think you were interpeting "Casual" for "Niche". But what is "Casual" and what is not, and what is "Niche" and what is not? I am Casual too I guess, but just not only Casual. Sometimes I play a certain game more casual and another game not. The world is always different from any moment to the other and from every point of view in the very exact same moment. Thats what is making life so interesting.

Only thing thats not interesting are 99,9% of the games and game developers nowadays. That was all totally different 20 years ago.

 

The gaming industry is a bad joke today and has really become the worst nowadays. No ambition, magnificence, artistic effort, striving for something great, something that isnt generic garbage from yesterday. Damn the games today are from a gameplay standpoint even much worse than the games from 20 years ago, only the graphics have improved, its a joke, this gaming industry today. Its all just about money... . Like the whole rest of the world has become.

Edited by Urahara

After EverQuest Next is gone, its Star Citizen for me.

 

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Just to clarify... I think last we heard league had 27million unique players a month or so?  Like 10million a day or maybe even concurrent?

 

Star Citizen isn't going to come anywhere near that.

 

People that don't understand that crowfall could have broken a million easily or had millions of players easily just don't understand the current gaming climate... Gaming is so big now... even h1z1 broke a million, dayz sold what 3million?  And those were super crude versions of games.  Archeage had like 2million in NA at launch, so much that they had to turn most of them away with crappy server options and long queues.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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