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GeistBaoh

CrowFall player Population...1million, 5million, 10 milllion or under 750k?

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Newer tech doesn't mean today what it once did. You have games like Undertale taking game of the year nominations. It's about the variety of gameplay and in the MMO genre it is more about the feel you get sharing content with ACTUAL PEOPLE.

 

Community is what made the game enjoyable. Everquest was fun because it forced you to group with people and interact with them. WOW is falling a part because options they added to the game have restricted communal interaction. At fikrst it was group finder.. It didn't matter if you had a reputation of being good at your class when all it took to complete this ridiculously easy content was having the right classes in the same room together that didn't really need to communicate to finish the content. It has progressively become worse when you had Garrisons. It got even worse furthermore when Raidfinder was implemented.. When the game consists of showing up with random strangers to zerg content and win to check a box off a list every week the game isn't rewarding anymore.

 

In Everquest for each area of the game per server there was ONE ZONE. Nothing was instanced.. To be able to accomplish anything you had to work with 5 other people which meant getting along and relating.That meant if you wanted to go farm a spot you either had to wait in line with the group's leader, you had to come forcibly take the camp with 5-6 other people (which was considered really bad etiquette) or you had to do something crazy like train a bunch of mobs on them and get them all killed and then steal their camp.

 

I know it's hard to imagine but in this game at the end game reputation mattered. If you wanted to get into a guild you had to fill out a form that was akin to a job resume. You had to interview with people and get votes from their guild members JUST TO APPLY. You gave a poorly made socks about your reputation because people remembered when you acted like a hooligan. People remembered when you went out of your way to help them out with something.

 

Some times you had to wait an hour before you could join a group.. But when you did the experience was good and it was worth the wait.. It became even more worth it to network and make friends that valued you taking your class seriously and valued that you played your class well. There were people on the server everyone knew and they were considered server legends for any one reason or another. The gameplay drove these types of interactions.. If you ask most MMO gamers what they remember most about whatever experience they had form whatever MMO they played I can feel confident saying that a majority of people will tell you about experiences they shared playign with people they liked. Any of us that are the more old hardcore players will probably be able to relate.

 

These are the things the MMO genre really provide that we have been suckered out of by the tripple A gaming machine. Why do you play with other people? Community.

 

 

When Dragons spawned EVERYONE had to rush to the dragon from wherever they were to meet up with their guild to get there and mobilize a strategy to kill the thing in order to be able to get the better loot. It took sometimes 100+ people to kill something big. It felt epic.. you had people dying all over the place and a real sense of oh custard can we do this? What upped the steaks even higher was that other guilds were watching licking their chomps ready to jump in behind you and take the dragon next if you failed.

 

In a world like this you really felt a loyalty to the people you played with. There was a true sense of comradery and people having to work hard together to overcome the odds. The more convenience you add to a game the less people are forced to rely on one another and a majority of the time the more you take away from gameplay driving community and relationship building.

 

People complained about this.. massive amounts of drama was started.. A lot of people were angry they had to fight each other for content and complained they wanted another way. The funny thing about gamers is a majority of the time they don't know what they want. They know what they don't want.. But many fail to realize the true impact a design decision can make from their experience of the game.

 

 

 

Even Vanguard Saga of Heros held on for years past it's initial failure of a launch and lack of content (that was very much gated by grind quests due to lack of funs for real new content) because it had communal elements that made the game still very enjoyable to a lot of people.

 

I don't think Todd and Gordon went into this without realizing the potential gold mine before them. If this game provides the communal parts of the EK, the Guild system or even just groups of people working together in PVP even half effectively at launch this game could be huge.

 

Do you guys remember early release for LOL? I do.

 

I remember the only other thing similar was Heros of Newerth. It didn't do as well as LOL but surely it had the potential to. The game was basically a direct reskin with better graphics of DOTA on the WC3 map.

 

LOL on the other hand, was not. Now the items when the first game were heavily imbalanced. The champs were heavily imbalanced.

 

It didn't really matter. It was fun to play.

 

Instead of finding ways to polish the exterior and make the game prettier (like Heros of Newerth) LOL spent it's time and resources figuring out how to make the items work better to builds and champions and styles of play, how to tweak things etc and change champion abilities to create a more cohesive measured type of play.

 

I guess at some point I am going to sound like a red priest from GOT talking about Azor Ahai and "the game that was promised" but I genuinely believe they are on to something here.

 

So long as the game and fun enough to keep people playing and the game gets an opportunity for continued refinement and growth this game has incredible potential.

Edited by Noctonomous

“There is a savage beast in every man, and when you hand that man a sword or spear and send him forth to war, the beast stirs.” -Jorah Mormont of Bear Island

George R.R. Martin

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Star Citizen isn't going to make it though... It will come out many many years from now because it bit off more than it can chew.  By the time Star Citizen comes out there will be newer tech, newer potential. 

 

I thought about it, and I have to say that by the time Star Citizen comes out (2018-2020), there wont be most likely any new AAA MMO or other type of AAA Game, besides GTA 6 maybe.

There arent any ambitious games announced so far, and so there wont be any in the future, because they arent getting developed anymore, because the people are stupid and happy with always the same Call of Duty. And for sure there wont be any ambitious game in the same league as Star Citizen.

 

Star Citizen is going to make it, and it will change the whole gaming industry more than anything else ever did. Star Citizen will be and is already the most important project in the electronic entertainment sector of all time by far.

 

When we have been talking about a possible new big MMO in the near future, and I was expressing my assumption that the only major company maybe going to publish a big MMO in the near future would most likely be NCsoft, you were also saying that you believe that Blizzard will make a big MMO soon. I looked into this a bit deeper, and I found a statement from Blizzard, that they arent working on any new MMO or a successor to WoW. They arent working on anything else than Addons for WoW. There wont be any big new game from Blizzard in the years to come. Only mobile games and crap.

 

Star Citizen, Crowfall/ACE, and few others are the only major hopes we are having, as people who love and enjoy video games.


After EverQuest Next is gone, its Star Citizen for me.

 

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slight derail,

 

I am not convinced Star Citizen has to ever actually "launch".

 

They make more money per month than most companies just selling ships.

 

rename it Ship Trader and crank out new design every 60 days = ca-ching!


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slight derail,

 

I am not convinced Star Citizen has to ever actually "launch".

 

They make more money per month than most companies just selling ships.

 

rename it Ship Trader and crank out new design every 60 days = ca-ching!

 

Arent you the one who asked Tyrant 2 days ago for new occasions to throw money at ACE?!

 

I know, I am having my concerns as well, but Star Citizen is the damn only hope left for the MMO genre.

Its worth the try in my opinion and giving them the chance to make this ambitious project reality.


After EverQuest Next is gone, its Star Citizen for me.

 

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Arent you the one who asked Tyrant 2 days ago for new occasions to throw money at ACE?!

 

I know, I am having my concerns as well, but Star Citizen is the damn only hope left for the MMO genre.

Its worth the try in my opinion and giving them the chance to make this ambitious project reality.

 

 

Hell yeah...and I have several ships in SC as well.

 

I was just pointing out how well they do without actually launching.

 

I would love for the game to live up to the "vision" , but I really don't expect much over there at this point. (And agree it will a game changer if they actually pull it off)

 

But back to the subject: I would think that 100k is realistic here, no?

Edited by Jimbolini

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I'm torn.  I could see the pop starting 1mil + and either growing a bit over the course of a year, or dropping to 500k-ish after the first couple CWs then 100k-ish by year end.  It really depends on how well the biggest "loop" of the game feels - CW to EK.  In other words, will players like me care about our EKs?  Is it enough to sustain my guild of 30-50 or will we wind up dropping to ~10 actives after the first couple CWs?  Obviously there are players with other preferences than us, but it really feels like ACE tries to speak right to us when they talk about their vision and many of their design views.

 

I'm optimistic that my guild and others like us will find a more permanent home for our MMO love.  Despite us being 10 years older, I see plenty of evidence that we are willing to devote massive time to a game, but tend to fizzle when the game offers no more than a 1-ticket ride.  BDO is a perfect example, in that we all quit within a month because being in a guild was irrelevant to us while we played.  I barely ever even saw other members.  We want politics and risk, which the game seems to embrace; but most of all we want to be together with purpose.

Edited by mctan

Mic MWH, Member of Mithril Warhammers since 2003,


Hammers High! http://www.mithrilwarhammers.com

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I suppose no matter how you slice it. The question should really be directed at the Devs. How many are they expecting at launch? Will they have enough servers up to carry the load? Will they have too many? Sway the scales too far either way and it spells disaster. Then revisit the same questions 3 months, 6 months, 1 year from launch. 

 

I certainly don't envy the devs. 


 

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Actually Noc, thats the old school way of MMORPG launches.

 

With AWS, they can simply spin up servers on demand (and similarly they can turn them off). No need to pay for costly hardware investments that go dormant and wasted months later.

 

They need 50,000 to survive, but I think that'd be a lowball launch number (though this soft launch thing could be a disaster). Kiddies these days hop around to the newest mmos everytime one launches. They don't stick around but they'll buy your box initially at least ;)

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I am saying the game will launch with 400k-500k sales, we already have 25k sales and the finished product/actual gameplay has not even been show at all. All we have is combat tests...more people will come.

 

Monthly paying subs will be really LOW for a long time since they already sold hundreds/ thousands of vip tickets. I personally have 18 years of VIP time...I know I will be selling some off when people are buying them at launch.


Check out my youtube channel for testing gameplay https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp-AgZ6mHOVObusemDVEXoA

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At launch maybe something close to 100k or maybe 250k depending on the marketing and so on but since all players can essentially see were things are heading way before the actual game launches (since there is no NDA even in Pre-Alpha, Alpha, Beta, etc.) I guess there won't be a massive hype train. Instead I guess the players who are going to play will be staying rather than leaving after the first three months. 

 

It also depends on which rulesets they are able to implement at the softlaunch and how long it takes to implement the others. I think Dreggs will be first (?) and the others will come later? 

 

And I think their design choice of having multiple rulesets/world bands and time limited campaigns offers them a good amount of tools to counter shifts in the community and attracting new players at the same time. For example if they see that a good amount of people isn't fond of playing the Dregs they can switch from let's say 10 dregs campaigns to 5 dregs and 5 infected or so or do something completely different. 


You get the wolves...lots of wolves...and sheep that wear armor and have developed an appetite for blood soaked grass - dubanka

Even insects smell good when roasted - a random confessor

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I am nearly as new to Crowfall as you can get having just made my account and pledge less than 11 hours ago from this post.

 

I have read a lot about this game though leading up to last night which pushed me to do the pledge ever since I've been trying to read and find as much info on the game as I can. The more I learn...the more excited I'm getting.

 

But though I'm new to Crowfall, I'm no newbie to MMORPGs with my history dating very near to 20 years back with them.

 

Sadly, I think what the owners of Art Craft says in the start of their 12 hour stream about the standard in MMORPGs is pretty much "WoW plus...." is true. Thats what the mainstream crowd of MMO players are not only used to today but that's what they more or less expect. 

 

There's a ton , and I mean a *TON* of players I know right now that would roll their eyes the moment I explain to them an MMORPG that doesn't have questing or raids...they would look at me like I'm from Mars going "ugh..that's not an MMORPG dude"....

 

(Upon which I'd probably face palm and shake my head)...

 

To sum it up -- As long as the vision of this game is right with my understanding with it (I'm hoping/assuming we will form up as guilds and we will fight these campaigns as guilds working together...because in my mind that has potential to be glorious and I feel this kind of play style could really make a guild tight much tighter than in traditional "quest/raid" type of MMO) - but I think it'll be up to US folks that are interested in Crowfall right now that we are researching the game, playing the tests (well some of us still eagerly awaiting to!) to spread the word to help build the game up.

 

Anyway...I'm rambling sorry...

 

I don't think the game will hit a million, that's just realism and many years of experience playing MMOs this type of game to put bluntly requires more skill and challenge than traditional "care bear" mmo players are used to IMO.  I hope I'm wrong of course...but I just don't think I will be.

 

By the same token as others mentioned the design of this game is that even with at least 100k-200k dedicated players the game should be viable from a player perspective, I don't know if its financially viable from ArtCraft's standpoint -- I hope so.

Edited by Mytheros

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Some charts showing active accounts and subs in mmorpgs over time (0 to 1M)

 

 

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(click to enlarge)

http://mmodata.blogspot.ca/

 

 

 

talka bout crash n burn lmbo


The most important thing is to enjoy your life - to be happy - it's all that matters. - Audrey Hepburn “:♡.•♬✧⁽⁽ଘ( ˊᵕˋ )ଓ⁾⁾*+:•*∴
Read more at brainyquote.com/search_results.html#KTJ4dHyeiltlKOTM.99

mz_Yr9k_I.jpg

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I am nearly as new to Crowfall as you can get having just made my account and pledge less than 11 hours ago from this post.

 

I have read a lot about this game though leading up to last night which pushed me to do the pledge ever since I've been trying to read and find as much info on the game as I can. The more I learn...the more excited I'm getting.

 

But though I'm new to Crowfall, I'm no newbie to MMORPGs with my history dating very near to 20 years back with them.

 

Sadly, I think what the owners of Art Craft says in the start of their 12 hour stream about the standard in MMORPGs is pretty much "WoW plus...." is true. Thats what the mainstream crowd of MMO players are not only used to today but that's what they more or less expect. 

 

There's a ton , and I mean a *TON* of players I know right now that would roll their eyes the moment I explain to them an MMORPG that doesn't have questing or raids...they would look at me like I'm from Mars going "ugh..that's not an MMORPG dude"....

 

(Upon which I'd probably face palm and shake my head)...

 

To sum it up -- As long as the vision of this game is right with my understanding with it (I'm hoping/assuming we will form up as guilds and we will fight these campaigns as guilds working together...because in my mind that has potential to be glorious and I feel this kind of play style could really make a guild tight much tighter than in traditional "quest/raid" type of MMO) - but I think it'll be up to US folks that are interested in Crowfall right now that we are researching the game, playing the tests (well some of us still eagerly awaiting to!) to spread the word to help build the game up.

 

Anyway...I'm rambling sorry...

 

I don't think the game will hit a million, that's just realism and many years of experience playing MMOs this type of game to put bluntly requires more skill and challenge than traditional "care bear" mmo players are used to IMO.  I hope I'm wrong of course...but I just don't think I will be.

 

By the same token as others mentioned the design of this game is that even with at least 100k-200k dedicated players the game should be viable from a player perspective, I don't know if its financially viable from ArtCraft's standpoint -- I hope so.

It's actually more likely that this kind of game breaks a million now than it has ever been before.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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Although this is a purely speculative topic, I thought it might be helpful to offer a couple of thoughts on the future population of Crowfall, and what it may mean for it's success and/or struggle.

 

Crowfall and ArtCraft are prepared for the game to be populated by a smaller, niche audience. In fact, the game is intentionally being developed for a small niche audience. By that I mean that Crowfall is not designed to be a mass market MMO (if there is such a thing anymore). What that means is that there is a recognition that this particular genre won't appeal to the mainstream gaming media. Success or failure of Crowfall will have nothing to do with where the game ranks on Twitch, Raptr or any other measurements that are generally used to measure.

 

The ultimate question isn't where Crowfall will rank in population vs. other MMO's. The bigger question is this: can Crowfall be profitable with it's current vision and course/speed. That's the bet and risk. As long as the game remains profitable and can continue development - that's the population this game will hopefully have. 

 

Here's where my personal bias comes in: I do not predict Crowfall to be adopted as the ultimate MMO and begin to see millions of players flock onto the severs. What I do expect is that the game that Todd and Gordon pitched is the game they will make because it's game that's built for those of us who have been dying to have a game like this. I don't want another mass market MMO - it already exists. Thankfully, ACE has been crystal clear that they are going to make Crowfall not another rehash of a game we've already played. Will this mean that the game may not appeal to as many people? Yes and I'm glad that's the case.

Edited by arawulf

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op

 

im thinkin like 1 billion

 

like facebook

 

can link their facebook and crowfall accounts together n ppl will be crowfacing or bookfalling


The most important thing is to enjoy your life - to be happy - it's all that matters. - Audrey Hepburn “:♡.•♬✧⁽⁽ଘ( ˊᵕˋ )ଓ⁾⁾*+:•*∴
Read more at brainyquote.com/search_results.html#KTJ4dHyeiltlKOTM.99

mz_Yr9k_I.jpg

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I thought about it, and I have to say that by the time Star Citizen comes out (2018-2020), there wont be most likely any new AAA MMO or other type of AAA Game, besides GTA 6 maybe.

There arent any ambitious games announced so far, and so there wont be any in the future, because they arent getting developed anymore, because the people are stupid and happy with always the same Call of Duty. And for sure there wont be any ambitious game in the same league as Star Citizen.

 

That's almost three years away. Let's try to be a bit more realistic here. Titanfall 2, Battlefield 1, Call of Duty Warefare, ect were officially announced less than a year out and usually with the same year. Titanfall 2's was like in April, it releases in October. By the time Star Citizen releases there will probably be plenty of AAA titles announced and released.

 

He does have a point about tech decay, but it's not a really good one. This is an issue most companies go through. A lot of games take several years to develop so it's kind of a moot point.

 

 

Kiddies these days hop around to the newest mmos everytime one launches. They don't stick around but they'll buy your box initially at least ;)

 

There's a reason for that. A lot of them are casuals looking for the next WoW, but will probably never find it. Essentially they want another expansive MMORPG that's easy to get in or drop without much consequence. They don't really realize that's not how MMORPGs works, but at least the vast majority of MMORPG studios are trying their damn hardest to cater to them anyways. Like you said though, they don't care if you stay long term... they just need a good cycle of players that come, leave, come back, leave, ect. Ironically, facebook-styled games and phone games often employ the same strategy... 

 

The rest are more traditionally-inclined MMORPG players seeking a hearty experience. A lot of them are tired of grinds, tired of redundant and overly familiar content, tired of too-fast treadmills or too slow-treadmills. They want an experience they can kneel before and pledge loyalty to. I don't think an MMORPG can give it to them though without completely giving up hope on casual players which few companies will ever risk doing.

 

But it does sell. Cut off casuals and focus on niche, then give them a solid experience. Both Crowfall and Camelot Unchained are offering to do just that, and the result? They have the undivided attention of the PvP crowd.

 

Similarly, games like Chronicles of Elyria are doing the same with the PvE crowd.


Wearily do I sleep eternity away.

Without fear or haste, on bedding made of solitude and silence.

 

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One of the problems with artcraft's vision is they want player decisions to matter and they want these sprawling game worlds with emergent behavior but at the same time they want to make everything casual friendly which simply does not work.

 

If you want a game with truly interesting and emergent behavior you have to allow for superachievers to superachieve and you have to let everyone stand on their own merits instead of this whole shallow power curve concept where everything gets washed out because it is all so similar.

 

If Arawulf wants to spend his whole time crafting allow him to become a really godly crafter that can make gear that is 23423423x better.  If some casual can make something 90% as good with way less investment into honing his craft because of a shallow power curve then that just makes it all so bland.

 

Let VIKINGNAIL the godly pvper display his superior skill on an exponential curve where the great players can never lose to awful players and awful players have to learn to be great to compete.

 

With a shallow power curve great players get washed out and if they are only as powerful as 3-4 ok players then they don't really get to influence the world equal to the amount of energy/skill they put in to excelling. 

 

Casuals do not make for great server ecosystems, they make for WoW. 


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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One of the problems with artcraft's vision is they want player decisions to matter and they want these sprawling game worlds with emergent behavior but at the same time they want to make everything casual friendly which simply does not work.

 

If you want a game with truly interesting and emergent behavior you have to allow for superachievers to superachieve and you have to let everyone stand on their own merits instead of this whole shallow power curve concept where everything gets washed out because it is all so similar.

 

If Arawulf wants to spend his whole time crafting allow him to become a really godly crafter that can make gear that is 23423423x better.  If some casual can make something 90% as good with way less investment into honing his craft because of a shallow power curve then that just makes it all so bland.

 

Let VIKINGNAIL the godly pvper display his superior skill on an exponential curve where the great players can never lose to awful players and awful players have to learn to be great to compete.

 

With a shallow power curve great players get washed out and if they are only as powerful as 3-4 ok players then they don't really get to influence the world equal to the amount of energy/skill they put in to excelling. 

 

Casuals do not make for great server ecosystems, they make for WoW. 

 

Exactly! Quoted for truth. Blood for the blood god, skulls for the skull throne. ; )

 

Need to stop making games that just let people feel good and let one be about competing and skill where there are clear losers and clear winners. 


Wearily do I sleep eternity away.

Without fear or haste, on bedding made of solitude and silence.

 

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