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GeistBaoh

CrowFall player Population...1million, 5million, 10 milllion or under 750k?

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This is definitely a hit or miss game. Depending what they consider "launch" and what it provides will determine whether it has a huge fanbase or a small one. Not to mention overall quality. If the game isn't fun for a lot of the backers, we might have less than we initially thought.

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I don't think it's a question of Casual vs Hardcore for CF, that's the beauty of multiple campaign rule sets, it caters to both without harming the other. I think it's more the case of it's more of a word of mouth game, it's not plastered all over TV or the Web and in your face. 

 

Most of the people I have talked to about CF heard about it from myself or another person, without us telling them about it, they would have never known it was a game.

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I would like 1.5-3 million skilled dedicated players

 

what population numbers would you like to see?

Those are some hugely optimistic numbers. Warhammer Online was a larger project with more known devs with a massive hype train behind it, and IIRC it capped, at launch, at about 800k. 

 

I suspect CF will see 50-150k accounts at launch. If it's a great game, that'll slowly increase. If it tanks, like AoR did, then that'll quickly devolve to a few thousand dedicated players. Honestly, a few thousand dedicated players is fine for a server and a game, but it's not enough to keep a studio in business. 

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I just hope for enough players so we all can play the game. More the better I guess. More players will allow AC to try out more rule-sets in multiple campaigns and allow us a better experience overall.

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As a fan- sure I'd love for millions  of people to play  the  game

As a player --  I gotta be a little selfish and say 400k-500k would be nice. Just so  the playerbase consists of fans of the game and is  not watered down with

today's modern day  gamer.

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Somewhere at the 100k - 150k player mark as other posters have suggested. To me, anything else seems very unrealistic if I have to be perfectly honest, and it has less to do with the quality of the game (I mean, it's not even out of all that close to being released) but for one, the MMORPG market is pretty saturated and spread out. Crowfall seems like a very genuine attempt at recapturing what was great about the older PvP MMORPGs, but I don't see that market being as big as some of the other posters believe. 

 

Using League as a reference for how many potential players exist for Crowfall is pretty odd to me. It's a vastly different game and the only real tie in is that both games are PvP. 

 

What I'm more interested in is how retention will be for this game. Will the game pick up more and more players as time goes by? Will it have explosive growth? Or just die out like most other MMORPGs in the past few years. I can only wish for the former because I'm super excited for Crowfall's eventual release. Also, 150 - 200k players is a pretty god damn sizable amount of players. More the merrier, but I'd settle for a solid 150k anytime of the week. 


What's a 1000 minus 7? 

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We can look to other pvp games to get a feel for where pvp is at right now.  Crowfall is somewhere between something like overwatch/LoL/dayz/rust/smite/gw2....  How are those games doing population wise? 

 

If all of those games have a large appeal we can surmise that it isn't really ridiculous to think a game that is a fusion of a lot of those elements could then also be popular. 


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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once it launches it will be around the 1 mill mark but lets see after the MMO community has had 1 month of this game what happens


Hey just Shout Bremmen and he will, Rise and Destroy the people you wish decimated :o

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Just to use what I predicted in an other thread, my opinion, hope it will be more, feel free to discuss it :

 

Current situation

EVE reached 500 000 in 2013 after 10 years (no more recent data)

CF is at 140 000 backers now, which is a big head-start over EVE (reached that point after 3 years) and we can hope to gather more players as launch approaches (especially if they do a twitch live again).

 

Assumption

We will reach the 500k cap quicker.

 

But ?

Kickstarter (and Alpha, and Twitch) already attracted a part of the "potentially-interested-by-CF-that-is-currently-looking-for-an-MMO" population

We are already IN the game, so we will represent a huge player-magnet if CF is fun

Soft-launch may discourage some to try the game*

 

So ?

We may reach the 500k cap quicker in years (the head-start), but not in monthly-subscriptions (the "buts").

In a nutshell, a shorter player-population curve to 500k but a less steep one.

 

Pseudo-predictions

- 180k BEFORE launch (I don't remember when soft-launch is, but mid-2017 maybe ?)

- 500k in 8 years (using the above-mentioned "buts", "current situation" and EVE adapted population-curve)

Every thing else is just drawing a line between these dots and counting for every year, so

- 210k after 1 year

- 250k after 2 years

- 300k after 3 years

- 400k after 6 years

 

These are my figures, this my mind, I'm out of here so critics are fine 

 

* I first agreed with ACE on soft-launch strategy (SL) : We backed them, we're ready to wait for the updates a SL-strategy implies ... Hell I'd instantly buy a VIP profile, but WE aren't the ones SL is aimed at. SL is for new players to join and buy. They never heard of CF before and will probably be waiting for a finished game. So if CF isn't at its peak condition at SL, we're in deep manure since they won't join.

Cassandra, OUT * drop the marble-microphone *

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all of these people suggesting a million players don't understand how many people that really is. this game is taking a lot of cues from shadowbane and eve online, and thusly will be a bit ... shall we say niche-y? i wouldn't count on hitting a million players. however i don't say that to suggest that it won't survive with less. i am coming to crowfall from eve and went to eve from city of heroes/city of villains. coh had an active playerbase of about 150k to 200k and was still profitable to the tune of $5 million per year when it was shut down (for political reasons, not because it was failing. NCsoft wanted to push it's playerbase to GW2). crowfall can (and i think will) make it.

Edited by Kalus_Konkwest

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Somewhere at the 100k - 150k player mark as other posters have suggested. To me, anything else seems very unrealistic if I have to be perfectly honest, and it has less to do with the quality of the game (I mean, it's not even out of all that close to being released) but for one, the MMORPG market is pretty saturated and spread out. Crowfall seems like a very genuine attempt at recapturing what was great about the older PvP MMORPGs, but I don't see that market being as big as some of the other posters believe. 

 

Using League as a reference for how many potential players exist for Crowfall is pretty odd to me. It's a vastly different game and the only real tie in is that both games are PvP. 

 

What I'm more interested in is how retention will be for this game. Will the game pick up more and more players as time goes by? Will it have explosive growth? Or just die out like most other MMORPGs in the past few years. I can only wish for the former because I'm super excited for Crowfall's eventual release. Also, 150 - 200k players is a pretty god damn sizable amount of players. More the merrier, but I'd settle for a solid 150k anytime of the week. 

^ probably the most accurate assessment. and with it's small footprint in terms of costs this game can easily function and succeed at that level.

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all of these people suggesting a million players don't understand how many people that really is. this game is taking a lot of cues from shadowbane and eve online, and thusly will be a bit ... shall we say niche-y? i wouldn't count on hitting a million players. however i don't say that to suggest that it won't survive with less. i am coming to crowfall from eve and went to eve from city of heroes/city of villains. coh had an active playerbase of about 150k to 200k and was still profitable to the tune of $5 million per year when it was shut down (for political reasons, not because it was failing. NCsoft wanted to push it's playerbase to GW2). crowfall can (and i think will) make it.

If you think crowfall is going to be primarily populated by shadowbane and eve players you are not being realistic about what the actual game is showing you it is. 

 

Are survival games nichey?  How come they get millions of players?


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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If you think crowfall is going to be primarily populated by shadowbane and eve players you are not being realistic about what the actual game is showing you it is. 

 

Are survival games nichey?  How come they get millions of players?

 

that wasn't what i was saying. WoW is what i'd consider a very generic mmo, about as typical and broadly appealing as it is possible to make one. shadowbane and eve aren't designed to appeal to as broad an audience and so they have a smaller base of players and playstyles that are drawn to them. 

 

as for the popularity of survival games, i think i would have to chalk much of that up to them being a new spin on online gaming in general and that the new genre flavor is still trying to figure out where it fits within the rest of them.

 

the main difference between a MOBA and an MMO is that one has persistent worlds and the other instances them on a per-match basis. i think crowfall will be possibly the first game to try and bridge that gap with a unique system that provides a little of both (instanced campaigns and persistent EKs). it will be interesting to see how it works out.

Edited by Kalus_Konkwest

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that wasn't what i was saying. WoW is what i'd consider a very generic mmo, about as typical and broadly appealing as it is possible to make one. shadowbane and eve aren't designed to appeal to as broad an audience and so they have a smaller base of players and playstyles that are drawn to them. 

 

as for the popularity of survival games, i think i would have to chalk much of that up to them being a new spin on online gaming in general and that the new genre flavor is still trying to figure out where it fits within the rest of them.

 

the main difference between a MOBA and an MMO is that one has persistent worlds and the other instances them on a per-match basis. i think crowfall will be possibly the first game to try and bridge that gap with a unique system that provides a little of both. it will be interesting to see how it works out.

Crowfall borrows from a ton of different genres and gives it a casual friendly wrapper... That means it has a chance to pull gamers from all of those different genres, from the moba players, to the survival game players, to the mmorpg players etc... 1million these days is nothing compared to what it was 10 years ago.  Niche games these days can have a million players easily, sometimes much more than that.  You look at survival games and even mobas less popular than dota2 and LoL, and then mmorpgs...

 

They'll easily reach a million players if the combat isn't god awful, IF.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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Crowfall borrows from a ton of different genres and gives it a casual friendly wrapper... That means it has a chance to pull gamers from all of those different genres, from the moba players, to the survival game players, to the mmorpg players etc... 1million these days is nothing compared to what it was 10 years ago.  Niche games these days can have a million players easily, sometimes much more than that.  You look at survival games and even mobas less popular than dota2 and LoL, and then mmorpgs...

 

They'll easily reach a million players if the combat isn't god awful, IF.

 

people keep throwing that "million players" around like it's the golden bullet for success. i've seen very good games with less than 1/5th that number. honestly, when it comes to that i would lean more toward a lower number of devoted players than a mass of players who don't really care. dedicated players won't intentionally create a toxic atmosphere that drives new people away.

 

i guess it also matters if you're talking about people actually logging in and actively playing or simply setting up an account. WoW boasts many millions of players but that isn't their average daily user total.

Edited by Kalus_Konkwest

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people keep throwing that "million players" around like it's the golden bullet for success. i've seen very good games with less than 1/5th that number. honestly, when it comes to that i would lean more toward a lower number of devoted players than a mass of players who don't really care. dedicated players won't intentionally create a toxic atmosphere that drives new people away.

 

i guess it also matters if you're talking about people actually logging in and actively playing or simply setting up an account. WoW boasts many millions of players but that isn't their average daily user total.

It is a bullet for success in pvp games, because if you have much less than that it means your game doesn't have the population to really bring about the best skilled pvpers.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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dedicated players won't intentionally create a toxic atmosphere that drives new people away.

Well VikingNail seems dedicated to me x) (gentle shots fired, just passing by, see you guys)

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If you think crowfall is going to be primarily populated by shadowbane and eve players you are not being realistic about what the actual game is showing you it is. 

 

Are survival games nichey?  How come they get millions of players?

I agree if ACE get it right and implement their vision correctly the game has a more broad base appeal and should IMO approach the 1M player base.


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I agree if ACE get it right and implement their vision correctly the game has a more broad base appeal and should IMO approach the 1M player base.

Definitely, if alpha state really buggy and crappy survival games can break a million copies sold, there's no reason crowfall couldn't if it had any sort of polish and fluidity to the combat + the campaign world aspects.


Skeggold, Skalmold, Skildir ro Klofnir

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