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Jezvin

Experiment stat bonus and failure rate seem exceptionally wrong, for a PvP game.

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Edit: Summary, The whole crafting system is currently weighted very heavily towards getting an amazing success on a craft. Because of this it overshadows everything else in the crafting system.

Crafting success chance: It's base higher than getting an amazing success so amazing success is more important

Quality Materials: An Amazing success green will be better than a Good success Purple for weapons because of the min/max split you can do.

 

The system should decrease gains as you get better success rolls so that the best rolls don't blow out the bottom.

Current system of increasing gains: 12% 24% 36% 60% 95%

A system with decreasing gains:       40% 60% 75% 85% 90%

                                         (Success, Moderate, Good, Great, Amazing)

 

I want to stress they feel just completely backwards from the goals outlined in the FAQ and that is why I am making this thread, not some minor balance issue here.

 

 

In the current system the secondary stats on items have an exponential growth potential to them. When you craft an item it inherits all the secondary stats from the materials used and then can be enhanced through experimenting. This experimenting will give different % increases based on the amount of points used and the success that you get. 

 


 

Using this spread sheet data, the rates are as follows for 8 pips

Success 12.64%

Moderate Success 24.64%

Good success 36.64 %

Great success 60.64%

Amazing success ~95% ( based on what I remember making weapons)

(the PiPs roughly divide up the total % shown here, so 2 4 pips amazing would be 45% it's not perfect but it's enough to ignore the PiP variance and focus on the Success tiers)

 

Since the later tiers have larger increases from the previous tier their bonus is going to outclass others by a significant margin.

 

Lets just do some quick math on it

a .04 base crit chance value on the metal bar/plank, lets assume we are making a pistol.

 

Barrel

-2 metal bars

 

Body

-Weapon grip

--Plank

-Pistol hammer and frizzen

--2 metal bar

-Pistol trigger

--1 metal bar

 

Our total crit equation for the weapon will be

[(((.04*BE)+(.04*BE))*Barrel E)+((  [((.04*PE)*WGE)]+[((.04*BE)+(.04*BE))*PHFE]+[(.04*BE)*PTE]  )*Body E)]*Pistol E

 

Assuming for simplification all the experimental chances are the same we can simplify it down

BE^2(.08) + [(BE^2(.04)+BE^2(.08)+BE^2(.04)]*BE

(BE^2(.08) + (BE^3(.16)))BE

BE^3(.08) + BE^4(.16)

 

Alright now we can make sense of this easier

The results of a weapon made with each success type on every stage at 8 pips

Success                 .359 crit chance added

Moderate success .5104 crit chance added

Good success        .707 crit chance added

Great success        1.27 crit chance added

Amazing success    2.617 crit chance added

 

These later tiers are harder to get but are significantly better and will have a much higher impact in PvP.

 

So why is this bad? PvP and item decay.

(I am going to paint a somewhat grim picture here, but this is mainly for SECONDARY stats on items and not the primary damage which I will talk about after.)

 

When the more time invested gear has a significantly higher performance in PvP it leads to massive power gaps in MMOs in particular where large portions of the population do not have access to the gear but have access to getting killed by people with the gear. 

 

This issue really only goes two ways based on experience.

 

1.These power gaps are typically either fixed by Micro transactions 

(Higher chance for amazing success or don't lose components when abandoning craft type things that become

required because that gear is multiple times better than non amazing success gear) Archeage, Every Korean game ever

Anything p2w.

 

2. Or the game slowly dies as the more time invested players get the better weapons and consistently win consuming materials from the losers until their time investment is not worth it. (Most sandboxes like Darkfall, or even to a lesser extent survival games)

 

 

Either of those two things are VERY concerning to me, remember though it's about time investment to get the gear and then the results from what gear the players have.

 

For a PvP game the degree of difference for the exceptional rare items typically want to decrease in power gap as the tiers goes up to avoid a top tier bubble of unbeatable players. 

It should look more like

Success 40%

Moderate success 60%

Good success 75%

Great success 85%

Amazing success 90%

 

Their backwards implementation is why I worried, this isn't a balance tweaking issue, the whole system is either negligently backwards akin to old MMOs where the best gear took forever but was auto win buttons or being setup up for micro transaction.

 

Edit: I made an image of the numbers to show how Crowfall's crafting system handles them.(dead center on the graph is a Good Success)

 

YNd3csj.png

 

 

Now this brings us to part two of the issue, the rates of Amazing successes and weapon decay. This process took about an hour to craft a whole weapon and I was using the dupe. I only had to make 1 bar and could reuse it for every other craft to get the amazing success. Every lower component would have to be made significantly more times just pushing the required effort in simply crafting it 

 

Just assuming salvage allowed you to get 100% of your materials back this process would take hours and hours where every fail means the recrafting of every previous attempt. That is just for the experiment also, you could fail the craft or fail to get the quality desired.

 

So these items in the first place are almost impossible to get, which begs the question why are they in the game in the first place. And then why are they significantly stronger than all the other items. This compounded crafting also lessens the reward of experimentation because it's most effective compounded with great/amazing successes and almost not worth it compared to that even if you have a few greats/amazing when making an item. ( there was 12 rolls making the pistol, 1 or 2 amazing successes unless on some key pieces will have a very little impact on the final value.)

 

Now if these items become possible to make (via micro transactions or higher crafting skills) their strength makes them the primary PvP item and this is the complete opposite of what they say in their FAQ. 

 

"24. HOW DO YOU PLAN TO PREVENT “I ONLY WANT THE BEST!” SYNDROME?"

They more or less says that the durability will make it so the best items aren't used the most often because of cost/time investment.

That is ok but he doesn't talk about how strong the best is compared to the rest.

 

Now it's understandable that he does not mention the balance because it's not set in stone yet,(best reason to talk about it now) but it's a very important part to the answer he gives, the durability argument does curb this power gap argument. But if the power gap is too significant the durability point goes away if you can't win unless you have this gear.

 

 

 

There is some good stuff.

All is not a disaster, there are some very nice balance decisions in place, and the crafting system is a breath of fresh air in MMOs.

 

They have a very nice way to curb Weapon damage depending on how many pips people eventually get. Right now a Purple item will give you 8 pips and you need to put it in min or max damage. Putting all 8 in max damage will give you the better average and more volatility in your damage. But using only a measly Green item that allows 4 pips max you can split the 8 pips between min and max damage to bring the average up close to that of the purple item with more consistency for roughly the same average DPS between the green and the purple.

 

Also damage is only impactful in the last stage of the craft, which means weapon damage does not exponentially increase 

through the build like secondary stats do. So building weapons out of grade mats only to get the best potential roll on the damage for the final stage is significantly easier to do than pulling a secondary stat up through the process. This is cool, but depends highly on how many pips a crafter will get access to.

 

But, because of the pip question it goes back to FAQ 24,

If we get more pips than allowed to put into one line, then the only PvP viable weapons will be Amazing success on the final stage with both damages maxed on the highest grade weapon. This is completely against FAQ 24.

 

The problem is ONLY An amazing success will be viable because the damage is 20% more damage than a Great, and 30% more damage than a good success. This is a lot less than the 600% with the exponential growth of the secondary stat but These are values way more than enough to be PvP relevant unless the game is about 1 shotting people. (think of a party of 5 using 20% more dps weapons against another group, the weapons make the math a "6v5")

 

This might feel overly critical, but I've been doing the MMO thing for almost 18 years now and balance stuff like this just jumps out as warning signs, especially when it doesn't line up to their stated goals.

Edited by Jezvin

Jezvin

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The math makes me drool.

 

But i agree, this is sort of the issue i feel is in the crafting. It has the illusion of depth. It has alot of things you COULD do but an extremely small things you actually would end up doing. Its sort of like the same old story of 95% of 'stats' you can get on weapons being useless.

 

The limitation is sort of on the pips, even if you had 12( Blair saying he was thinking they end up between 10-12) with max training, the only way to make higher quality material worth it is to make the "all in on a single thing" be better then spreading them out.

 

I feel this removes the depth and makes only a small amount of certain stats worth it. And the issue is, resists and weapon damage will always be the no brainer choice to make, leaving the secondary stats and the majority customization on stats far far far in the dust.

 

Thats why i dont think all pips should be created equal. Or at least the experimentation point distribution slots not be created equal.

 

Example is perhaps weapon damage experiment slots actually take 2-3 pips per spot. While sheen and other stats are a 1-1 ratio. 

 

Or you cap out weapon damage experiment slots earlier then the others, forcing you to spread out the pips to make more choices.

 

What this could do is, you cap out on max weapon damage increase possibly early, but the better crafters has more crafting points to add to the durability/secondary stats to bring the item to a better level thats not just linear with how many points you can put in to the max damage.

 

 

 

Currently, if you wanted alot of attack power on a weapon, of all the crafting steps you would have to lose out on at least two steps, both of the steps that has weapon damage because obviously weapon damage>attack power. So easily, the attack power you wanted is only 25% of what it could of been which equals to like 7 attack power using purple stuff. Thats 0.7% of a damage increase. But lets say they move the decimal place over. and you get 70 attack power, this is getting closer, because if you chose attack power instead of weapon damage, in theory, with amazing success on two more stages for attack power instead of weapon damage could be 280 attack power. Thats 28% to overall damage, thats getting closer, but over doubling the max damage on a weapon is still the way to go even then.

 

So what does this mean? This means that the only parts of crafting that matters is the stages you can increase the weapon damage. EVEN if they turned the nob to increase 'other' stats x10.

Edited by Vectious

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I think you are seriously overestimating the gear gap that will exist, and also the effect that gap will have on PvP.

 

Different quality resources drop in each world band. If you are playing in God's Reach, the best quality you will likely see is green, unless the campaign allows you to import better. If the campaign allows you to import better gear and you don't, that's on you. Join a campaign without imports or get better gear.

 

Differences due to experimentation have thus far proven to be pretty small. It will only be the best trained crafters who will be achieving amazing successes on a regular basis. If you aren't trained in crafting, you shouldn't be the one crafting the gear. This is not a solo game. Someone in your group/guild/faction should be able to make you better gear. To say it isn't available to everyone is really not true. If you want the gear you craft to be better, train in crafting.

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I think you are seriously overestimating the gear gap that will exist, and also the effect that gap will have on PvP.

 

Different quality resources drop in each world band. If you are playing in God's Reach, the best quality you will likely see is green, unless the campaign allows you to import better. If the campaign allows you to import better gear and you don't, that's on you. Join a campaign without imports or get better gear.

 

Differences due to experimentation have thus far proven to be pretty small. It will only be the best trained crafters who will be achieving amazing successes on a regular basis. If you aren't trained in crafting, you shouldn't be the one crafting the gear. This is not a solo game. Someone in your group/guild/faction should be able to make you better gear. To say it isn't available to everyone is really not true. If you want the gear you craft to be better, train in crafting.

Or just maintain a second account to do this for you.

 

And by maintain, i mean spend $50 to have it and just have alarms to log on every other 3 days to update the training.

 

But of course, this is a entirely different debate. :)

 

 

 

 

As for the gap, Gordon/Todd wanted that gap to be a very small curve. So at least, in this aspect we will definitely see alot of knob turning.


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I think some things are overlooked here.

 

I am basing this off of the system we currently have to use (meaning I understand, as should you, that what we have will likely not stay).

 

Somewhere (and I'm wayyyy too lazy to look it up and link) there is a statement about how for blueprints they understand people are going to utilize the amazing/great successes only (ie the 'best' options).

 

I didn't use the dupe bug, and while it takes a considerable amount of time to gather even the ore & leather from chests, I have also done a considerable amount of resource farming (stupid fessor books!).  Right now, in a given hour, using the harvest pots, I can get 2 - 16 green quality resources of a given type (depending on which server you are on, what you are farming, etc etc)...this is green...while we have a 'loot pinata' atm regarding blue (& some purple) ore & blue leather...it would seem to me that farming blue, purple, or even orange ores will be  a much rarer occurrence than people are making arguments about.  Plus, how long will it take to train the skill(s) require to even get to access those resources?  How about the skills to make those materials into useful gear?  That is also assuming you have access to a crafter on the server you are gathering on, otherwise...

 

Then consider that the embargo system, as it is currently described, means NO resources being exported for a while (win condition).  Does anyone think any 'wins' are going to happen on timescales less than months?  Even if you say you have a win condition on a CW that is a week...once a week, and at a percentage of the materials...what is going to get out?  Take into account combat specialists will likely 'win' more-so than a gatherer (or crafter), and you have to 'run the gauntlet' to even get to an embargo point.

 

So you are looking at likely months before you ever see that first piece of decent blue or above gear, maybe longer.

 

Barring that though, as it currently stands, I have crafted books from grey through purple quality (extremely luck with RNG)...the purple book failed on max damage (there seems to be a relationship between fail conditions and quality from my testing)...I've made grey books with higher damage.  While theoretically an amazing success on a purple book would yield the best damage, that may or may not be the case.  Part of this is derived from the fact that some stats seem much more powerful than others, to include damage.  My best max damage was a blue quality book with just over 900 dmg , and in testing killing things, it didn't do amazingly more damage than a green or white book with max damage in the high 700's.  The power curve isn't there , though I have noticed melee weapons seem to have higher base  damage.

 

Players are always going to min/max things.  I have made the argument previously that no one puts points into 'durability' if they don't have to, and the base stats don't scale with quality.  Part of my argument has been is there isn't enough of a gap.  The mention of 'risk versus reward' is ever-present, and as the system stands at the moment, the risk of gathering and crafting a 'superior' weapon is not in line with...well anything really.

 

As part of the trifecta of 'what makes things better': gear, skills, ability...right now there feels like a lot less difference between gear quality, and more about the various stats combination can impart.  Considering the seemingly related higher fail rate (craft & experiment) with higher materials, the increased dangers and difficulties in acquiring the better materials (once chests are taken out of the equation), the time frames to make these materials and final products available to people, it feels like making a grey or white quality item is the way to go....but who wants to be cookie cutter?  If there is negligible difference between the gear of quality and the common stuff, why bother?  Why craft at all?  Just give us all the basic weapon  and armor and say have at it?  The point, I thought, was to be able to make wonderful and wondrous things, but they can't last forever...  but if you want everything to be mundane and basically no 'power gap'", then why bother with a system at all?

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Then consider that the embargo system, as it is currently described, means NO resources being exported for a while (win condition).  Does anyone think any 'wins' are going to happen on timescales less than months?  Even if you say you have a win condition on a CW that is a week...once a week, and at a percentage of the materials...what is going to get out?  Take into account combat specialists will likely 'win' more-so than a gatherer (or crafter), and you have to 'run the gauntlet' to even get to an embargo point.

 

So you are looking at likely months before you ever see that first piece of decent blue or above gear, maybe longer.

 

You don't have to export stuff to an EK to craft. You can craft in campaign worlds.


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I think you are seriously overestimating the gear gap that will exist, and also the effect that gap will have on PvP.

 

Different quality resources drop in each world band. If you are playing in God's Reach, the best quality you will likely see is green, unless the campaign allows you to import better. If the campaign allows you to import better gear and you don't, that's on you. Join a campaign without imports or get better gear.

 

Differences due to experimentation have thus far proven to be pretty small. It will only be the best trained crafters who will be achieving amazing successes on a regular basis. If you aren't trained in crafting, you shouldn't be the one crafting the gear. This is not a solo game. Someone in your group/guild/faction should be able to make you better gear. To say it isn't available to everyone is really not true. If you want the gear you craft to be better, train in crafting.

 

It's not really about any of this. It's more about the degree of difference in the experimentation and how that plays out when meaning is given to the stats.

 

But currently the difference in experimentation for weapon damage certainly is impactful, but it get exponentially hit like secondary stats do at the moment.

 

Quality of resources is almost irrelevant to what I am talking about because it gives potential while the experiment determines what the real result is.

 

If Pips get maxed at 10 or 12 for experimentation then that dictates what the most efficient weapon will be. Which is a green or blue with the maximum number of pips in Min/Max damage and an amazing success. 

 

The problem with it is it needs to be an amazing success.

Here is an example, if you take a Green weapon and if you have 8 Pips and max the min and max damage with an amazing sucess it should be around 46% more damage. But if you take a Purple weapon with 16 Pips and max both min and max weapons but get a good sucess it is only 36% for each compared to the 46% on the green.

 

So Greens with an amazing success is better than a purple with good. Why bother making the purple when there is a large risk vs spamming a bunch of greens to get the amazing success. Also remember the example uses an IMPOSSIBLE purple weapon, you can't get 16 pips based on what others said in this thread. 

 

Right now the whole crafting system hangs on getting amazing successes, and it's because the gap between Moderate, good, great, and amazing is weighted incorrectly towards amazing success and it cuts out depth from the whole crafting system mainly related to material quality and crafting failures.


Jezvin

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It's not really about any of this. It's more about the degree of difference in the experimentation and how that plays out when meaning is given to the stats.

 

But currently the difference in experimentation for weapon damage certainly is impactful, but it get exponentially hit like secondary stats do at the moment.

 

Quality of resources is almost irrelevant to what I am talking about because it gives potential while the experiment determines what the real result is.

 

If Pips get maxed at 10 or 12 for experimentation then that dictates what the most efficient weapon will be. Which is a green or blue with the maximum number of pips in Min/Max damage and an amazing success. 

 

The problem with it is it needs to be an amazing success.

Here is an example, if you take a Green weapon and if you have 8 Pips and max the min and max damage with an amazing sucess it should be around 46% more damage. But if you take a Purple weapon with 16 Pips and max both min and max weapons but get a good sucess it is only 36% for each compared to the 46% on the green.

 

So Greens with an amazing success is better than a purple with good. Why bother making the purple when there is a large risk vs spamming a bunch of greens to get the amazing success. Also remember the example uses an IMPOSSIBLE purple weapon, you can't get 16 pips based on what others said in this thread. 

 

Right now the whole crafting system hangs on getting amazing successes, and it's because the gap between Moderate, good, great, and amazing is weighted incorrectly towards amazing success and it cuts out depth from the whole crafting system mainly related to material quality and crafting failures.

 

All good stuff but to quote TBlair  "Don't get hung upon the numbers" ACE have put very little effort into getting the skills and the crafting numbers right. What we have is a first pass to test the crafting mechanisms rather that the actual effects, stats, bonuses etc.

 

Good feedback to give but I don't think we need to be concerned yet.


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All good stuff but to quote TBlair  "Don't get hung upon the numbers" ACE have put very little effort into getting the skills and the crafting numbers right. What we have is a first pass to test the crafting mechanisms rather that the actual effects, stats, bonuses etc.

 

Good feedback to give but I don't think we need to be concerned yet.

 

I think we should be concerned and talking about it, I don't think ACE needs to worry about it until the next step of their development. But as the community if we are fleshing out balance issues one step ahead of development, when they actually get to the next step the ideas will be there. 

 

Now this particular issue is important because of the unique crafting system they have created. If you want a linear power progression, implementing that into this crafting system will cause an exponential amount of stat growth for the top teir gear. Since the game is competitive a exponential curve will blow the other crap out of the water unless the dumb down the PvP impact of gear which in turn hurts the economy. 

 

So because of the system they are building the numbers need to Trend to lower gains on higher rolls. Because of this I am also arguing that this is relevant to the stage of development they are in. 

So with a downward trend for gains the crafting system will then exponentially boost them resulting in a linear power curve. 

 

I made a picture to illustrate

 

YNd3csj.png

 

 

So the current curve Trends up Sharp at the end making everything before the turn more or less useless gear that no one will want for PvP. Like they said too I didn't pay attention too much to my numbers just made it a linear decrease in gains but even that you can see my curve straightens out once put through their crafting system.

 

This post is about how the crafting system itself handles the number and the resulting power curves it has. It's core to the system and if isn't relevant now then it's the next thing on their list.


Jezvin

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You don't have to export stuff to an EK to craft. You can craft in campaign worlds.

 

I understand this, to a point.  You have to train it though.  As I understand it, we have access to all the basic skills without training (though, tbh I have trained basic craft & explore for testing), and each starter node is supposed to grant the basic skills.  So if you are going gatherer, does it benefit you to divert training time to crafting?  Will the basic gear be good enough to bother with?  Vice versa for the crafter...do you put time into the basics of gathering so you can at least start pumping out some gear?

 

Plus, once we do get to the point that advanced gear becomes accessible, will there be the (seemingly) required crafting stations on the CW's?

 

So yes, I understand that some crafting will occur during campaigns, but to start it is going to be a trade-off.  Even at that point though, it's likely not going to be cut and dry to offload said crafted equipment to other players on CW (you know, barring things like GvG places where dedicated crafters for the guild will be a (probable) necessity), or again, trying to make the embargo point.

 

As I was reading through this morning though, I had an idea.  What if items had a linear increase on their 'base' that was immutable?  I was thinking in terms of weapons for this to start...IE...a grey weapon always maxes out at (arbitrary numbers used for examples) 400min/500max, white is 500/600, green 600/700, blue 700/800, purple 800/900, orange 900min/1000max.  Now I see the benefit to this idea as it both creates the innate desire to acquire the rarest quality weapon (and this would translate to other crafted items as well), because people nearly always are going to try and maximize their damage/dps first, as many MMO's, RPG's, and other games, have taught us.  It would allow for some greater variety of experimentation as well, but this would hinge upon secondary stats being more or less equal (if you have + attack doing more  damage than + specialized damage, or + crit chance, etc, you will sway the experiments to the best min/max possibility).

 

As it stands now, green quality or above you are going for damage...that does not lead to variety, outside of your success chances, which, as many have mentioned, then just hinges on you getting the best success you can dump materials into for the final experimentation.

 

Right now it doesn't feel like the rarer the quality the better the final product, because regardless of quality you start at the same base stat.  I cannot believe this was their intent.

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Guys are forgeting they are adding blueprints and factories. If your a swg vet ws or as just experiment with base components till you get all amazing blueprint it then pump them out. Just be happy the resources arent as crazy as swg.

 

As to the PVP power bubble coming from Old school UO, swg with item decay and under the impression that the higher tier CW will have full inventory loot I honestly dont see people rolling out with their best gear unless it is with a guild party in a controlled situation. The chance to lose your expensive weapon for random pvp seems to great a deterrent to me. In UO because of full loot that kept the player economy rolling same thing with item decay in SWG.

Edited by Nephalite

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Guys are forgeting they are adding blueprints and factories. If your a swg vet ws or as just experiment with base components till you get all amazing blueprint it then pump them out. Just be happy the resources arent as crazy as swg.

 

This isn't really the point, I am a SWG vet also.

 

The problem here is that this gear is the best by a large margin, so once this process is finished the only PvP gear people will want will be Amazing success level gear because it's multiple times better than any other gear. So the factory actually make the problem worse by adding more of this super tier gear.

 

The graph only shows the top half of experimentation so a good success is the dead center on it, and a amazing success is 3 times better. Everything that is not a great or amazing success is worthless in the eyes of the amazing success. 

 

So although this is a crafting problem it will have it's effect mainly on PvP and the economy. Also this exponential growth is going to have major effects on crafting/harvesting specialty seal stats.

 

It's about bringing up the trash tier gear to relevancy so there is a smooth power curve. 


Jezvin

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So Greens with an amazing success is better than a purple with good. Why bother making the purple when there is a large risk vs spamming a bunch of greens to get the amazing success. Also remember the example uses an IMPOSSIBLE purple weapon, you can't get 16 pips based on what others said in this thread. 

https://community.crowfall.com/index.php?/topic/15079-training-crafting-potions/?p=315598

 

The quality bonus from the assembly stage isn't working as intended. Purple will almost absolutely be better than green unless you just completely tank on the experimentation I guess.

 

Beyond that, I'm really not sure why you are worried about getting amazing results. Given the right training, you will get amazing fairly often. We see it already. You are just as likely to get an amazing result using purple resources as you are green. If the resulting item turns out poorly, you salvage it and try again until you get something really good and then you make a blueprint of it. Now you can make multiple high quality items.

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https://community.crowfall.com/index.php?/topic/15079-training-crafting-potions/?p=315598

 

The quality bonus from the assembly stage isn't working as intended. Purple will almost absolutely be better than green unless you just completely tank on the experimentation I guess.

 

Beyond that, I'm really not sure why you are worried about getting amazing results. Given the right training, you will get amazing fairly often. We see it already. You are just as likely to get an amazing result using purple resources as you are green. If the resulting item turns out poorly, you salvage it and try again until you get something really good and then you make a blueprint of it. Now you can make multiple high quality items.

He is referring to statistics relating to the availability of material vs the chances of getting a favorable result.

 

 

Obviously he is not saying that with the exact same resource amount you could make a better item with green quality over purple.

 

What he is stating, is that since you would have 30X more green then purple, statistically, you would net a better result with green.

 

Also, possibly having a more diverse item since you cant go all in on a single stat with all the pips.

 

Its sort of the whole issue with the system, making 'all in' the best guts out the depth. But if it wasn't the case, then higher quality would matter alot less by a huge margin. 


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Just poking my head in to say this thread is wonderful, keep up the maths and discussion! Lots of great points on both sides of the debate, and the game will only get better from conversations like this.

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He is referring to statistics relating to the availability of material vs the chances of getting a favorable result.

 

 

Obviously he is not saying that with the exact same resource amount you could make a better item with green quality over purple.

 

What he is stating, is that since you would have 30X more green then purple, statistically, you would net a better result with green.

 

Also, possibly having a more diverse item since you cant go all in on a single stat with all the pips.

 

Its sort of the whole issue with the system, making 'all in' the best guts out the depth. But if it wasn't the case, then higher quality would matter alot less by a huge margin. 

Assuming green resources are more plentiful than purple, yes, they will have a higher chance of producing amazing results based on the sheer number of times you can craft. That I agree with. However, it is entirely dependent on the world band in which you are playing. If you are in God's Reach, you won't be getting any purple resources. If you are in the Dregs, you will likely get more blue and purple than you will green. 

 

In some of the other campaigns, sure, green will be much more abundant than purple. So what? That just means that most people will be sporting green gear. Given the quote from Blair that I posted, if you do make a purple, it will almost certainly be better than the green, regardless of the results of experimentation.

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Assuming green resources are more plentiful than purple, yes, they will have a higher chance of producing amazing results based on the sheer number of times you can craft. That I agree with. However, it is entirely dependent on the world band in which you are playing. If you are in God's Reach, you won't be getting any purple resources. If you are in the Dregs, you will likely get more blue and purple than you will green. 

 

In some of the other campaigns, sure, green will be much more abundant than purple. So what? That just means that most people will be sporting green gear. Given the quote from Blair that I posted, if you do make a purple, it will almost certainly be better than the green, regardless of the results of experimentation.

I think you misunderstood what blair was getting at.

 

The higher quality nodes only APPEAR in the dreggs and they are the one with the CHANCE at the higher drops.

 

So a max tier node of lets say 6 may still be only 1 out of 10 that you find, and then it still could drop some janky stuff.

 

But maybe i misunderstood what Blair said.


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I think you misunderstood what blair was getting at.

 

The higher quality nodes only APPEAR in the dreggs and they are the one with the CHANCE at the higher drops.

 

So a max tier node of lets say 6 may still be only 1 out of 10 that you find, and then it still could drop some janky stuff.

 

But maybe i misunderstood what Blair said.

Maybe. I'm not really sure of the range of nodes that will be within each band. He did say that the node ranks are 1-10 and we know that the best resources will be in the dregs, so there will definitely be nodes of rank 10 there. The question I guess is what range of ranks will there be and what will the ratio be. If the lowest rank in the dregs is rank 9, then I wouldn't expect there to be much in the way of green resources. If the dregs have all 10 ranks and rank 10 is the least common, then yeah, there's going to be more green than purple. I don't think we'll see the latter occur, but maybe something in between is possible.

 

But like I said, green should almost never be better than purple, regardless of experimentation, once the assembly part is working correctly. If you do happen to get a really bad purple, oh well. Salvage it and try again.

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@Jezvin: I agree with you in most aspects of your post and I think you're doing both ACE and the community a service by bringing up the topic and providing the math to back up your findings. I would take this over to the suggestion forum.

 

That said, where I begin to disagree is in the diminishing nature of your suggested benefit curve. It detracts (a little too much for my tastes) from the benefit of taking the risks to push an item that high in terms of quality. In short, I believe fewer people would risk "wasting" the materials on experimentation if the net reward isn't sufficiently better than what they (likely) will already have access to (blueprints).

 

Perhaps something more linear? Keeping in mind the idea that as a CW progresses and the in-game seasons change from spring to winter, the world's environment and creatures become harder to survive against, which in turn would drive up demand for the better quality equipment. Equipment that needs to be made (or imported, but let's go with a no-import CW) and thus you have a timeframe where lower quality equipment serves as a means to progress and gather the resources needed for the higher quality equipment that will be needed later.

 

Current system of increasing gains:  12% 24% 36% 60% 95%
A system with decreasing gains:       40% 60% 75% 85% 90%
A system with linear gains:                50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
 
                                     Success - Moderate - Good - Great - Amazing
 
I, as a crafter, would be more willing to risk materials if I knew that the results of getting an upgrade were at least 10% better than what I was already working with. That benefit should, in turn, translate into equipment that is more desirable to combat-focused players as it will give them a measurable, meaningful advantage against players in lower quality gear. Though not so much of an advantage that it devolves into a game where gear is more relevant than skill or teamwork (Looking at you, ArcheAge.)
 
Players who dedicate time into training for a trade skill should not only be able to make items that non-crafters can't, but should be able to produce them at a quality that is otherwise unreachable to "the masses." Likewise, they should be rewarded for taking the risk in experimenting (hence my higher base value of 50% for a basic successful experiment by a dedicated crafter.)
 
The basic idea being that a player who's primary role in this game is crafting (hence our forum here :) ) should be equally important to the success of a guild's campaign as the players who specialize in fighting. 
 
Maybe have a skill-line within a profession-tree that increases the base amount of each tier of success so that novice crafters have something like your diminishing curve. Whereas experienced (fully trained) crafters have something more standardized/linear. Because given only time, most of us will be equals in the skills we have trained and I believe that the skills in-game should first and foremost reduce or eliminate the RNG element wherever possible.
 
I would expect a fully trained crafter to have fewer "success" rolls and be reasonably expected to land in the |Good-Great-Amazing| range a majority of the time. (say, 60 to 80% as an arbitrary figure). A skill-line for this too might not be a bad idea. An untrained crafter can land anywhere, but a fully trained crafter tends to land higher on the success spectrum by a percentage. Could even be broken down into different skills along the same line.
 
(Skill X = +25% to achieve Good through Amazing on experimentation attempts) 
(Skill Y = +25% to achieve Good through Amazing on experimentation attempts [Cumulative with Skill X])
(Skill Z = +25% to achieve Good through Amazing on experimentation attempts [Cumulative with Skill Y])
 
*wherein all of the above-listed examples are (+% scales with skill training level, effective immediately, so a skill of 33/100 gives a +8.25% chance)  ((25/100=0.25% chance per 1 point of skill))
 
TL:DR
 
I agree with you, but let's refine your curve and then push it over as a suggestion. 
 
also: sorry for the tangent at the end.
Edited by Rhast

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