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I had my first soul crushing craft today...


Camaclease
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I spent all test weekend finding purple ores... finally got enough to craft my all purple everything sword..  all bars honed... so much slash damage.....  so many amazing successes, oh my! Every single component works... no take bugs! All purple everything... Here we go baby... make that sword

 

98% chance of success? Yes please mate.

 

Crafting.... FAILURE!

 

/wrist...   Logged from the salt.

 

See you all next weekend. 

 

I will be the one running around trying to find purple ore. <3

I like games. I love testing games.

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seen a few threads about people saying they've been failing 95+% rolls quite a bit.  could just be really really bad luck or maybe some variables are out of place.

 

If it's any consolation, you would have lost your purple sword of slashiness in the next wipe anyway.  Better to have the frustration now than after launch.

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seen a few threads about people saying they've been failing 95+% rolls quite a bit.  could just be really really bad luck or maybe some variables are out of place.

 

If it's any consolation, you would have lost your purple sword of slashiness in the next wipe anyway.  Better to have the frustration now than after launch.

What impresses me is the number of people I've heard with statistically unlikely consecutive failure chains. Personally, my worst was 3 consecutive failures with a 97% chance of success, but someone else hit 14 consecutive failures at a 75% chance of success, which is about 1,000x less likely than mine was. I've heard a lot of those. Makes me think that some numbers ARE off, or else that the numbers we see mean something different from what they seem to.

 

Edit: someone in the Discord has been crafting potions - he had made a total of around 750 attempts last time I checked with him, and was showing a success rate of less than 50% when it should have been 75%. 750 attempts is enough that reality should have been starting to reflect the tooltips if everything was matching up correctly, but it was not even close. I have questions.

 

Re-edit: the 50% was me counting each of his take bugs as a success, and being very generous with counting them because he was treating each take bug as a non-factor, which had his results closer to 30% than 50%. Like I said..questions.

Edited by goose

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_release_life_cycle#Pre-alpha <--this is where we are. If your complaint is that the game don't not works good, come back later.

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Edit: someone in the Discord has been crafting potions - he had made a total of around 750 attempts last time I checked with him, and was showing a success rate of less than 50% when it should have been 75%. 750 attempts is enough that reality should have been starting to reflect the tooltips if everything was matching up correctly, but it was not even close. I have questions.

 

Re-edit: the 50% was me counting each of his take bugs as a success, and being very generous with counting them because he was treating each take bug as a non-factor, which had his results closer to 30% than 50%. Like I said..questions.

Actually, in some of the topics here a suggestion was made that percentage is not a flat success chance (like you should craft 95 of 100 items attempted), but it is taken from some base success chance (like base chance is 95% and with 95% you will have 0.95 * 0.95 = 90.02% chance to craft an item). I think it's more likely. I hope, though, there will be a way to make it flat 100% in game.

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You really don't need that failure 2-5% to exist for crafting to be high stakes. The discrepancy in value between a top tier high experiment roll weapon and a successfully crafted low tier weapon is still a real thing, and there's really no reason to even add the failure chance on final product assembly.

 

I don't mind failures as far as upgrades go, as they devalue the item, but wasting all the materials without even seeing the final product is merely depressing and demotivating.

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What impresses me is the number of people I've heard with statistically unlikely consecutive failure chains. Personally, my worst was 3 consecutive failures with a 97% chance of success, but someone else hit 14 consecutive failures at a 75% chance of success, which is about 1,000x less likely than mine was. I've heard a lot of those. Makes me think that some numbers ARE off, or else that the numbers we see mean something different from what they seem to.

 

I've also noticed that the chance of failure seem to be auto-correlated.

 

This suggests either that

 

1.  The RNG is screwed up

2.  There is some kind of confounding variable

WAZ6Fov.png

"The cinnabar is a lie"

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Thanks for all the replies! <3

 

@ Aranoc - I DID choose the Alpha Life.... c'est la vie

@ Ducke - I understand completely but as others have stated something is off with the RNG. 

@ sedside - Absolutely! Thanks for the sympathy.

@ vectious - I doubt it is working as intended...  there have been numerous tests showing the RNG is wonky.

@jasta85 - 100% agree

@goose - wow... 750 attempts.. that is more than enough data for accurate stats. RNG is off.

@IamMe - I play on east coast USA server, Sorrow. Hit me up!

@Noxious - I believe failure will turn off many players to the crafting of this game, perhaps even the game itself. Shadowbane/SWG isnt for everyone however.

I like games. I love testing games.

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You really don't need that failure 2-5% to exist for crafting to be high stakes. The discrepancy in value between a top tier high experiment roll weapon and a successfully crafted low tier weapon is still a real thing, and there's really no reason to even add the failure chance on final product assembly.

 

I don't mind failures as far as upgrades go, as they devalue the item, but wasting all the materials without even seeing the final product is merely depressing and demotivating.

I agree.

 

Unless you hit the high numbers on experimentation, it already feels like a failure.

 

Stacking a second failure on that is not "risk vs reward" simply because your obligated to take that step. You can't avoid the combine step, and there is no choice to be made about how much risk it takes.

 

It's totally pointless, and completely counter productive, to add a failure that is so catastrophic at this point in the process.

 

BTW, how many hours would you say you put in trying to get all the mats? Did you use a Dupe bug?

Edited by KrakkenSmacken
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Maybe the crafting success rate is impacted by the crafting stations that we are supposed to use in game but don't have yet in the test. Boosting the success rate may be one of the thrall functions.

The live stream where they were showing off the crafting stations, they did talk about different quality of stations, but had no firm ideas.

 

That said, that quality could impact experimentation, without impacting combine.  

 

If there is a way to get it to 100% on combine through skill and items, then I don't have nearly the problem I have with the current implementation which is just crappy user experience with no way to correct/influence the situation. 

 

Heck, they could even add an alchemist component that directly influences the chances of success of a specific item.

Edited by KrakkenSmacken
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@ vectious - I doubt it is working as intended...  there have been numerous tests showing the RNG is wonky.

Thats whats wrong with true RNG, that it FEELS wonky. Humans take the improbable for a impossible. 

 

I have never had a 98% fail and im sure i have crafted at LEAST 100 98% items by now, and by statistics i should of had at least 2 failures.

 

Pseudo-RNG is always the best, it removes the improbable and forces the probability to what it should be.

CfWBSig.png

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Personally I don't like failures on combine, but I'm perfectly fine with seeing failures on experimentation.

 

The issue with failure on combine is everything is lost on one roll of the dice.  If they would implement a recovery feature, we could still finish combining our item, but at an extra resource cost.  The recovery feature is just a way to force us to use extra resources, like an extra metal bar, so the item isn't just gone after failure.

lUvvzPy.png

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If there are other factors that influence the success rate of crafting items they need to be shown on the crafting screen before you try to make it.  If there are a bunch of hidden variables that change the success chance from what you see then what is even the point of having that percentage shown to you.  they might as well take it away and have you try and figure it out yourself.

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I agree.

 

Unless you hit the high numbers on experimentation, it already feels like a failure.

 

Stacking a second failure on that is not "risk vs reward" simply because your obligated to take that step. You can't avoid the combine step, and there is no choice to be made about how much risk it takes.

 

It's totally pointless, and completely counter productive, to add a failure that is so catastrophic at this point in the process.

 

BTW, how many hours would you say you put in trying to get all the mats? Did you use a Dupe bug?

Not sure if you are asking me, but I spent the whole weekend running around houses looting chests for the ore... I obviously didn't play 24/7 but I would estimate all of the ore(including some from the previous weekend) took me around 4-10 hours.. the reason that is such a large range of time is that when I get into Crowfall I tend to lose track of time and estimation is hard.

 

I do know that crafting took almost exactly 20 minutes.. when the sword failed (at 98% T_T) i had 1.08 minutes left on my assembly/experimentation potions (20 minute timer)

 

This was non stop crafting with no down time, I knew what ore made honed bars, I knew what leather boosts attack power on the grip, what boosts crit on the pommel. I researched all of that before hand while at work. 

 

*edit* 1.08 minutes not seconds... I would never start a craft that important without being assured I had enough assembly potion time for the entire craft duration.

Edited by Camaclease

I like games. I love testing games.

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Maybe the crafting success rate is impacted by the crafting stations that we are supposed to use in game but don't have yet in the test. Boosting the success rate may be one of the thrall functions.

The success rate is listed in both the crafting menu and the experimentation menu.... IE and this is a big tip.. if you have 8 points to invest in experimentation it is VITAL that you invest those points 1 at a time not all at once.. lowers your risk substantially thus increasing overall item power. 

I like games. I love testing games.

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