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narsille

Crafting Simulations

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I was making a poorly made socksload of tools this AM.  I decided to bite the bullet, keep some detailed records, and use this all to create a simple crafting guide.  Some of you might find this a bit basic, however, I hope that some of the numbers at the end might prove interesting to all.

Bit of background information.

  • All of these numbers were generated when I was creating a bunch of blue and green quality tool
  • With my crafting armor on, I have Runemaking Experimenting = 50.  Running pots, my Runemaking Experiment = 120.  (Your experimenting level effects the likelihood that you have an “Amazing Success” versus a “Good Success” or a “Moderate Success”.) 
  • I allocated roughly 300 experimentation points during the course of the morning.  My skill is high enough that I had zero “Success”, “Moderate Success” or “Good Success” rolls.  About 58% of my rolls were “Great Successes”, 38% were “Amazing Successes”, 3% were “Failures”, and 1% were “Critical Failures”

First, let’s consider how your success level effects the quality of the item that you are creating.

Your item has a based quality level for a variety of different statistics.  I was making tools, so the three statistics of interested were

  • Penetration:  How much damage will the finished tool do each time you swing at a node
  • Crit percentage:  (I make all my tools using silver and gold in the sigil.   This means that each swing of the finished tool has an increased chance to crit and yield improved quality resources.
  • Durability.

During the experimentation stage, you have the opportunity to allocate experimentation points.  You can either allocate them one at a time or, alternatively, allocate multiple points at once.  (For now, I strongly advise allocating your points one at a time.  More about this later).  Each time you allocate a point, you spin the wheel.  Depending on what level of success you have, your item will get better or, on a very rare occasion, worse.  Let’s use Penetration as our example:

  • The base penetration is 5.75
  • An “Amazing Success” will increase your penetration by 7.036
  • A “Great Success” will increase your penetration by 4.4145
  • A “Failure” will leave your penetration unchanged
  • A “Critical Failure” will decrease penetration by approximately 12.25, however, a critical failure will never decrease your penetration below 5.75

 

The number of experimentation points that you get to allocate depends on the quality of the materials that you are using and how high your crafting skills are.

  •  

    Using orange quality materials, you get 10 “slots” per skill in which to allocate your experimentation points
  • Using purple quality material, you get 8 slots
  • Using blue quality materials, you get 6 slots
  • Using green quality materials, you get 4 slots

The total number of experimentation points that you have depends on your skill level.  My crafting level is such that I get a total of 12 experimentation points to allocate per stage.  Let’s assume that I am doing the final assembly of my sigil and my runestone to create a runetool.  At this stage of the assembly, I get to allocate points for

  • Item quality (which increases penetration)
  • Durability

 

If I am using green level materials, I have a total of 8 experimentation slots in which to assign 12 points.  This means that I’ll have 4 points to burn.  If I used blue materials I’ll have 12 slots for 12 points.  If I use purple materials, I’ll have 12 points for 16 slots.  (I can allocate up to 8 points in either Item Quality or Durability, but I can’t max out both)

 

Here’s a simple applied example:

  • I am making a green pick.  My base penetration is 5.75
  • I allocate 4 points into Item Quality
  • My first roll is an Amazing Success.  Penetration increases to 12.786
  • My second roll is a Great Success.  Penetration increases to 17.2
  • My third roll is also a Great Success.  Penetration increases to 21.61
  • My last roll is a third Great Success.  Penetration is maxed out at 26.03

 

Here’s where life starts getting a bit more interesting:

 

I created some Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the distribution of tool quality that I could create with using different qualities of raw materials.  (Please recall, this is specific to an Experimentation skill of 120).  I generated 10K tools of each quality and created a table of possible distributions.

Green Tools

 

Penetration

Frequency

5.75

0.2%

6.7565

0.1%

7.585

0.0%

9.378

0.4%

10.1645

0.5%

11.9995

0.4%

12.786

0.3%

14.579

0.7%

14.621

0.2%

17.2005

1.1%

18.9935

3.0%

19.822

0.3%

21.615

5.6%

23.408

10.5%

24.2365

4.0%

26.0295

28.1%

26.858

1.0%

28.651

29.1%

31.2725

12.5%

33.894

2.2%

Blue Tools

 

Penetration

Frequency

5.75

0.01%

6.7565

0.02%

6.7985

0.01%

9.378

0.02%

10.1645

0.01%

11.171

0.02%

11.9995

0.01%

13.7925

0.16%

14.579

0.04%

15.5855

0.23%

16.414

0.10%

17.2005

0.07%

18.207

0.78%

18.9935

0.22%

19.0355

0.06%

19.822

0.07%

20.8285

0.96%

21.615

0.53%

21.657

0.03%

23.408

0.25%

23.45

0.56%

24.2365

0.27%

26.0295

0.97%

26.0715

0.18%

26.858

0.07%

27.8225

1.32%

28.651

0.97%

28.693

0.02%

30.444

5.00%

31.2725

0.49%

32.237

3.21%

33.0655

6.02%

33.894

0.06%

34.8585

13.43%

35.687

4.18%

37.48

23.37%

38.3085

1.49%

40.1015

20.96%

40.93

0.17%

42.723

10.34%

45.3445

3.00%

47.966

0.32%

 

Purple Tools

 

 

Penetration

Frequency

10.1645

0.02%

12.786

0.01%

13.006

0.01%

13.7925

0.01%

14.579

0.04%

15.6275

0.01%

17.2005

0.03%

18.207

0.03%

18.249

0.01%

18.9935

0.01%

19.822

0.01%

20

0.04%

20.8285

0.05%

20.8705

0.01%

21.615

0.05%

22.6215

0.12%

23.408

0.04%

23.45

0.06%

24.2365

0.01%

24.4145

0.10%

25.243

0.38%

26.0295

0.11%

26.0715

0.02%

27.036

0.38%

27.8225

0.12%

27.8645

0.36%

28.651

0.07%

29.6575

1.05%

30.444

0.41%

30.486

0.16%

31.2725

0.06%

32.237

0.17%

32.279

1.20%

33.0655

0.36%

33.1075

0.04%

34.8585

0.67%

34.9005

0.58%

35.687

0.24%

35.729

0.01%

36.6515

0.63%

37.48

1.22%

37.522

0.35%

38.3085

0.07%

39.273

3.15%

40.1015

1.22%

40.1435

0.07%

40.93

0.01%

41.066

1.35%

41.8945

5.91%

42.723

0.56%

43.6875

5.68%

44.516

6.08%

45.3445

0.12%

46.309

14.50%

47.1375

4.22%

48.9305

18.27%

49.759

1.75%

51.552

15.69%

52.3805

0.32%

54.1735

8.42%

55.002

0.04%

56.795

2.84%

59.4165

0.46%

62.038

0.01%

 

Orange

Penetration Frequency
14.579 0.01%
17.4205 0.01%
19.2135 0.01%
20 0.01%
20.042 0.01%
21.835 0.04%
22.6215 0.02%
24.2365 0.01%
24.4145 0.01%
24.4565 0.05%
25.243 0.03%
25.285 0.01%
26.0295 0.02%
27.036 0.06%
27.078 0.02%
28.829 0.03%
29.6575 0.06%
29.6995 0.01%
30.444 0.05%
31.2725 0.02%
31.4505 0.15%
32.279 0.09%
33.0655 0.04%
33.2435 0.01%
33.894 0.01%
34.072 0.32%
34.8585 0.05%
34.9005 0.10%
35.865 0.38%
36.6515 0.07%
36.6935 0.55%
37.48 0.12%
37.522 0.01%
38.4865 0.73%
39.273 0.21%
39.315 0.36%
40.1015 0.09%
40.1435 0.01%
41.066 0.06%
41.108 1.08%
41.8945 0.39%
41.9365 0.20%
42.723 0.08%
43.6875 0.41%
43.7295 1.02%
44.516 0.43%
44.558 0.07%
45.3445 0.03%
45.4805 0.28%
46.309 1.20%
46.351 0.70%
47.1375 0.24%
48.102 1.63%
48.9305 1.51%
48.9725 0.31%
49.759 0.10%
49.895 0.36%
50.7235 3.87%
51.552 1.14%
51.594 0.08%
52.3805 0.03%
52.5165 2.75%
53.345 5.90%
54.1735 0.66%
54.2155 0.01%
55.138 6.93%
55.9665 6.48%
56.795 0.23%
56.837 0.01%
57.7595 13.49%
58.588 4.04%
59.4165 0.02%
60.381 15.56%
61.2095 1.98%
63.0025 12.09%
63.831 0.64%
65.624 6.80%
66.4525 0.08%
68.2455 2.57%
70.867 0.68%
73.4885 0.07%


 Earlier in this post, I commented that players should (typically) allocate their experimentation points one at a time.

  Your expected quality roll decreases significantly if you spend multiple points at once (In my case, I tried spending 6 points at a time, and was seeing multiple "moderate successes" "successes", and the like.  At this point in time, it really doesn't make sense to be spending multiple points at the same time.  The counter example is if you only care about extremely high quality output.  For example, consider the case in which you which you were specifically creating items for the purpose of creating a blueprint and you only want to blueprint a tool with nothing but Amazing successes.  The odds of getting one of these "perfect" creations is extremely.  

When you need to be this far off on the tail, it makes sense to roll the dicey and spend all your points at once.

Edited by narsille

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"The cinnabar is a lie"

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I disagree with rolling only one pip at a time. If you only have the materials for one pickax, sure be safe and get a more average roll. But for us crafters who can make up to 10 green or blue ones at a time? Get at least the 50% on the risk so you have the increased bonus based on the rolls. Unfortunately with 12 points you can't split your risk well. I liked it better when risk was based on the possible pips on the item and not your experimentation points. With your 12 points you'd have to use all 6 pips on a basic white quality tool to get the bonus. But your blue quality and above you can use 6 pips at a time and split the risk and still get a higher average.penetration. I do think you are right about a decrease in roll results as you use more pips or risk. But i feel the extra 50% is worth a few more lower quality results. I really need to do an experiment to see whether it is risk or the amount of pips bring down tools and if so by how much. I know I've had greens at +45 and blues at +69. 

Also here was my distribution for my 50 blue pickaxes at 82 experimentation.

57.3=2
45.5=4
42=4
37.6=2
33.7=6
30=3
25.8=5
21.9=9
18=10
14=5

I do wonder at how well you'd do rolling my way with your 120 experimentation. I'm currently at 108 experimentation so perhaps its time to redo the 50 pickax to see how well the rolls improved.

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10 hours ago, Baldking said:

I disagree with rolling only one pip at a time. If you only have the materials for one pickax, sure be safe and get a more average roll. But for us crafters who can make up to 10 green or blue ones at a time? Get at least the 50% on the risk so you have the increased bonus based on the rolls. Unfortunately with 12 points you can't split your risk well. I liked it better when risk was based on the possible pips on the item and not your experimentation points. With your 12 points you'd have to use all 6 pips on a basic white quality tool to get the bonus. But your blue quality and above you can use 6 pips at a time and split the risk and still get a higher average.penetration. I do think you are right about a decrease in roll results as you use more pips or risk. But i feel the extra 50% is worth a few more lower quality results. I really need to do an experiment to see whether it is risk or the amount of pips bring down tools and if so by how much. I know I've had greens at +45 and blues at +69. 

Also here was my distribution for my 50 blue pickaxes at 82 experimentation.

57.3=2
45.5=4
42=4
37.6=2
33.7=6
30=3
25.8=5
21.9=9
18=10
14=5

I do wonder at how well you'd do rolling my way with your 120 experimentation. I'm currently at 108 experimentation so perhaps its time to redo the 50 pickax to see how well the rolls improved.

I wouldn't be surprised if there is some kind of intermediate strategy (spend three points at a time or some such) that work's better.

I might try to play around with this next weekend...

One other important question:

How "good" a tool do you need?

Right now, my primary goal is avoiding anything with less than 20 penetration.  (This allows me to cut through a node with a single stamina bar and means that beneficial harvest procs well)  As such, I am reasonably happy with green tools with pips allocated one at a time...

 

 

 

 


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"The cinnabar is a lie"

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It's not so much the quality of the tool per say but figuring out which method gives a higher range of results. Then you could later on use that data with any of the other crafting professions. Plus if you haven't skilled blueprint or factory skills yet it could be good information to know for launch. So you know how to make someones tool with greater precision and quality.

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Well done gathering that data.

 

It would be nice to know if 4 point amazing success gives a higher mining lvl or 4*1 amazing success.

Using points 1 by 1 also ups the crafting time by 1 second for each point. Thats not mutch for now but the devs hinted that the crafting time in the final game will be mutch longer. So the 1 sec may trun into 1 min or 10 min.

 


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On 3/21/2017 at 8:24 AM, Xenotor said:

Well done gathering that data.

 

It would be nice to know if 4 point amazing success gives a higher mining lvl or 4*1 amazing success.

Using points 1 by 1 also ups the crafting time by 1 second for each point. Thats not mutch for now but the devs hinted that the crafting time in the final game will be mutch longer. So the 1 sec may trun into 1 min or 10 min.

 

At the moment there is no difference between all 4 pips at once or individually, or in other combination.  I have tested this extensively with white/gold tools as well (amongst some other pieces).  I got really lucky last weekend and got a 3 pip amazing on a sigil which raised the crit% chance to 3.979, followed by 3 single pip amazings on the next sigil which made the crit 3.979.

Previously I used the 1 point in durability (or whatever stat was 'lesser' I wanted for the item I was combining) until I got an Amazing success, followed by 2 or 3 (depending on generic item or WW item) pip in what I wanted as the 'main' increase to be most effective.  With the recent changes though, 1 pip at a time seems the way to go if you are a trained crafter making a 'top end' item at this point, as other combinations (seem to) yield less desirable results (ref:

On 3/19/2017 at 6:00 PM, narsille said:

In my case, I tried spending 6 points at a time, and was seeing multiple "moderate successes" "successes", and the like.  At this point in time, it really doesn't make sense to be spending multiple points at the same time.  

Blueprints I feel will bring a different element into play, but for different reasons. 

I also think we all hope they make it so risking more pips will result in a 'bonus' on the results, otherwise more calculated risks will likely become the standard.

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