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Xorlarrin

Experiment risk

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Hello everyone,

I wanted to know what you thought about the experiment risk giving 50% bonus for 50% risk. (see below)

I was wondering what you guys thought about making it affect all experiment risk up to let's say 50%. Would it be worth it? would it be viable?

Meaning, if I experiment and want to go 10% risk, I get 10% more stats 20% risk 20% more stats. I do not know if it is something viable. I do understand the more experiment skill you have the lower the experiment risk is per pips. It could open up more options for crafters.

 

Let me know what you think.


No, you're not suppose to have extra pieces once the armor is assembled.

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I think the mechanic as it is now is a rather bad design, in that it punishes players with higher training when working with lesser materials.

Someone with 4 pips can trigger the bonus in two separate attempts on a white quality item, 4 total pips available, while a better trained player (10 pips) would never be able to trigger the bonus on those items.

That's just backwards.

It also makes the seeming choice of selecting 1 pip at a time for more time to build, so vastly inferior to going all in, especially when BP's are going to be on the line, that I think the whole model needs a big re-think.

There needs to be an advantage to selecting 1 pip at a time, that is offset by the amount of time taken to build an item, not a double bonus of quicker builds and higher potential, just for going all in.

I would much rather see a "careful process" bonus inversely relational to "risk".  So if you are at 8% risk, you have a 46% bonus but add 46% more time. If you are at 16%, the bonus and penalty is 43% and so on. Better trained will always get a better better result going in one pip at a time.

You should take "risk" to build faster, you take care to get better quality. 

 

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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Thanks for the input. I was really unsure about how I felt on the 50% risk thing. Didn't like it too much, Why give pips at all.

I was trying to lower my risk as much as possible thinking less risk better result. Maybe we can get the attention of ACE and have some great Ideas in here for them. 


No, you're not suppose to have extra pieces once the armor is assembled.

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2 hours ago, KrakkenSmacken said:

I think the mechanic as it is now is a rather bad design, in that it punishes players with higher training when working with lesser materials.

Someone with 4 pips can trigger the bonus in two separate attempts on a white quality item, 4 total pips available, while a better trained player (10 pips) would never be able to trigger the bonus on those items.

That's just backwards.

It also makes the seeming choice of selecting 1 pip at a time for more time to build, so vastly inferior to going all in, especially when BP's are going to be on the line, that I think the whole model needs a big re-think.

There needs to be an advantage to selecting 1 pip at a time, that is offset by the amount of time taken to build an item, not a double bonus of quicker builds and higher potential, just for going all in.

I would much rather see a "careful process" bonus inversely relational to "risk".  So if you are at 8% risk, you have a 46% bonus but add 46% more time. If you are at 16%, the bonus and penalty is 43% and so on. Better trained will always get a better better result going in one pip at a time.

You should take "risk" to build faster, you take care to get better quality. 

 

From all I have experienced, if I get "Amazing Success" on 1 experiment of 2 pips vs getting "Amazing Success" on 2 experiments of 1 pip. The 1 experiment of "Amazing Success" using 2 pips give a higher result.

The advantage of using 1 pip at a time would be consistency and less resources used. It takes more resources to get "Amazing Success" with 1 experiment of 2 pip. For me, this is time saved because I would need to buy / harvest more resources.

For a casual player that wants to produce good/great gear, time is valuable. For those that have more time to farm resources, they would be able to have more crafting chances with more resources. I think that having a higher risk should yield a higher reward. Playing the conservative game only gives consistency.

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22 minutes ago, Doggus said:

From all I have experienced, if I get "Amazing Success" on 1 experiment of 2 pips vs getting "Amazing Success" on 2 experiments of 1 pip. The 1 experiment of "Amazing Success" using 2 pips give a higher result.

The advantage of using 1 pip at a time would be consistency and less resources used. It takes more resources to get "Amazing Success" with 1 experiment of 2 pip. For me, this is time saved because I would need to buy / harvest more resources.

For a casual player that wants to produce good/great gear, time is valuable. For those that have more time to farm resources, they would be able to have more crafting chances with more resources. I think that having a higher risk should yield a higher reward. Playing the conservative game only gives consistency.

Been running some experiment numbers for quite some time on this issue, and there is only two choices.

When you pick one pip at a time, you are more likely to get Amazing Success, by a huge margin, but have no shot at the "risk" bonus

When you pick all pips at once, you have a small chance at amazing success, but with the +50% bonus you will get the best item possible.

If you want to make the "Best" stat item possible, always max out your PIP spend in one try. This is how people will make Blue Prints to then make hundreds of the same item in one run.

If you have limited resources and want the best chance as a good one off item, go one pip at a time.

There is no real balance, there is no real choice, there are no real options other than those two, all because of the 50% bonus and shorter build time for high risk experimentation.

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Something that's been bugging me about risk is when you bump it up to 100%, and then get a successful result.

That makes no sense at all; 100% risk, by definition, means that it will absolutely fail when you hit the button.  

My hope is that all of the modifiers aren't showing yet, and that 100% is really lower because of the crafting pots, or training, seals, etc.  In this case, the final risk showing on the screen just needs to show all of the modifiers and the adjusted (lower) risk.

Otherwise... please consider fixing this.
It doesn't make sense, and any new player would intuitively do what Xorlarrin mentions:

2 hours ago, Xorlarrin said:

I was trying to lower my risk as much as possible thinking less risk better result. Maybe we can get the attention of ACE and have some great Ideas in here for them. 

Sure, more risk, more reward has been a mantra - but there is a point where you should fully expect to lose all of your progress... and that point is 100%!

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1 hour ago, Doggus said:

From all I have experienced, if I get "Amazing Success" on 1 experiment of 2 pips vs getting "Amazing Success" on 2 experiments of 1 pip. The 1 experiment of "Amazing Success" using 2 pips give a higher result.

 

The reason behind this is the risk % being at 25 per pips on untrained craftmen. At 35 skill I have 10% risk per pip, at 82 I have 9.09% and at 130 I have 6.25%. 

Meaning that its it was impossible for me to get the best white item quality despite being deep into the crafting tree. I would like to see "more training better quality". I understand the blueprints concept, but I do think if you spend 5-6 month training a tree, you should make superior quality items. 

The niche quality for most player will probably be green/blue seeing how demanding harvesting is and how much comes out of nodes. With campaign restarting every few months, we won't always see everyone in purple gear. 

They need to balance out that 50% risk I don't think it is a fair mechanic for hardened crafters. I honestly do not have anything to suggest other than experience > lower risk > better items.

 

I did like that suggestion about a "being carefull/taking your time" mechanic

 


No, you're not suppose to have extra pieces once the armor is assembled.

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The true mark of a professional is consistency. A white mat item is only going to have so much you can do with it. Yeah the bunny spending 3 pips for the 50% bonus might actually get lucky and make 1 item better than you. But he is going to have a slew of mediocre items. If you have 15 points you can 3 pip great or amazings all day long then for the final combine spend a ton of points and likely get a good/great/amazing.

It might be a little wonky at the extremes of luck but your 15 top mark items are going to make so much more money than his 1 amazing and 14 bleh items.

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1 hour ago, Skit said:

Something that's been bugging me about risk is when you bump it up to 100%, and then get a successful result.

That makes no sense at all; 100% risk, by definition, means that it will absolutely fail when you hit the button. 

You're wrong about 100% risk meaning 100% failure. All it means is that you're risking 100% with a chance at failure.

Definition of risk

     1 :  possibility of loss

First point on Merriam Webster.  In this case The risk is you losing all your materials on a failure to craft or losing out on stat increases with experimentation failure. 

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Also i think the 1 pip will be way more useful for trying to get a blueprint with good or great stats using bootstrapping. Imagine someone successfully using white + blue or white |+ purple mats and getting the highest quality. With something like that I'd want more consistency since the chance of even rolling a purple or blue with white mats is quite low. So you'd obviously go point by point and hope they all go amazing. Yeah you won't have the best result but you could have cheap blue or purple bars to use and risk on a 50% risk final craft. That alone could be significant savings on resources. 
 

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1 hour ago, Baldking said:

Definition of risk

     1 :  possibility of loss

First point on Merriam Webster.  In this case The risk is you losing all your materials on a failure to craft or losing out on stat increases with experimentation failure. 

Right, so by that definition, the "possibility of loss" = 100%.  See what I mean?

I guess the point is that the enhancement screen is confusing, so they should state exactly what the 100% refers to.  Intuitively, it would be chance to fail.  Clearly it's not 100% failure, or nobody would "risk" it.  

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2 minutes ago, Skit said:

Right, so by that definition, the "possibility of loss" = 100%.  See what I mean?

I guess the point is that the enhancement screen is confusing, so they should state exactly what the 100% refers to.  Intuitively, it would be chance to fail.  Clearly it's not 100% failure, or nobody would "risk" it.  

Will probably get clearer as we near launch. 

 


No, you're not suppose to have extra pieces once the armor is assembled.

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4 hours ago, srathor said:

The true mark of a professional is consistency. A white mat item is only going to have so much you can do with it. Yeah the bunny spending 3 pips for the 50% bonus might actually get lucky and make 1 item better than you. But he is going to have a slew of mediocre items. If you have 15 points you can 3 pip great or amazings all day long then for the final combine spend a ton of points and likely get a good/great/amazing.

It might be a little wonky at the extremes of luck but your 15 top mark items are going to make so much more money than his 1 amazing and 14 bleh items.

Do the math.

New player that hits 100% risk on white, has to try how many times to get that one all important "Amazing Success". (say 20).

New player then cranks out 100 copies of that perfect, 50% increased, Amazing success through a blue print and a thrall. Cost 120X the mats.

Meanwhile the best a fully trained player can hope for is to crank out that perfect BP with less risked materials (Say 1 try)  than the new player, but his best is 2/3 of the quality of the new player. Cost 101X the mats.

Who do you think is actually going make more money selling his wares?

The guy with the best outcome possible, or the guy with 2/3 the best outcome possible?

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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4 hours ago, Baldking said:

Also i think the 1 pip will be way more useful for trying to get a blueprint with good or great stats using bootstrapping. Imagine someone successfully using white + blue or white |+ purple mats and getting the highest quality. With something like that I'd want more consistency since the chance of even rolling a purple or blue with white mats is quite low. So you'd obviously go point by point and hope they all go amazing. Yeah you won't have the best result but you could have cheap blue or purple bars to use and risk on a 50% risk final craft. That alone could be significant savings on resources. 
 

For one pip to be mathematically better, the odds of getting X pips in a row with Amazing success have to be high enough, to successfully overcome the odds of getting a single amazing success at maximum risk.

So if the odds of getting amazing success are an amazingly low 1% with maximum risk, and you had 8 pips to spend, the odds for getting and individual amazing success would need to be 56% to get the odds of 8 in a row to around the 1% mark (.96%). 

Even that would not compensate for the 50% bonus for taking maximum risk. No odds will every overcome that bonus.

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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So this new player is going to have all of the skills needed to make the blueprint? Not exactly a new player.
Also the traditional grandmaster player will be able to do the same thing as the bunny with greens or maybe even blues. 
Lets not forget the mythical grey item master able to crank out masterpieces at the drop of a hat. 
Honestly I think this is a tempest in a tea cup.

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1 hour ago, srathor said:

So this new player is going to have all of the skills needed to make the blueprint? Not exactly a new player.
Also the traditional grandmaster player will be able to do the same thing as the bunny with greens or maybe even blues. 
Lets not forget the mythical grey item master able to crank out masterpieces at the drop of a hat. 
Honestly I think this is a tempest in a tea cup.

I've never heard that just making a blueprint was something they were gating behind a skill.  If you have the recipe, you can make BP's was my understanding.

If you have evidence to the contrary, please point me to it.

Looking at the skills that do exist, it seems they are around making BP's produce more per run, and thralls getting access to higher quality item production.  The more per run could be a thing, but considering the importance of an extra 50% stat bonus, I still think it's not enough to offset the negatives, especially when the materials in question are of the lowest denominator.

I will concede, it could be an attempt to deliberately push higher end crafters out of the lower end item market, so the new crafters have something to offer that higher end crafters simply can not produce.  They did mention that possibility, and failing to make it work in SWG, during the Raph/Harvesting Video.

It would however be quite ironic if because of limited high quality resources, and high popularity of the outer bands, that it turns out better to limit training in crafting earlier rather than later, from an economic point of view.

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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On 4/11/2017 at 9:35 AM, KrakkenSmacken said:

It would however be quite ironic if because of limited high quality resources, and high popularity of the outer bands, that it turns out better to limit training in crafting earlier rather than later, from an economic point of view.

Even if it is economically better to limit your # of available pips - I might add that you can train a lot of crafting trees and skip some pips if you really wanted to limit yourself - any crafter who does this, pretty much limits themselves to working on white/green quality materials.  Anything higher and you will be missing out on additional pips that you'll want to add into your items.  I'd imagine there will be a market for white/green bars, but I certainly don't want the blacksmith in my guild to be making swords for the our combatants with fewer pips than will max out the useable pip slots for the item, just so they can crank out some really good white/green bars.

Ok - so maybe you've got a lesser trained blacksmith and then someone who is a blacksmith master - the apprentice makes the 50%+ bonus low quality bars and the master uses them to make the final items.  Isn't that kind of a cool system?  It gives everyone a role and gives the best result when you work together.

 

Edited by Izalea

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3 minutes ago, Izalea said:

Even if it is economically better to limit your # of available pips - I might add that you can train a lot of crafting trees and only pick up 4/8 pips if you really wanted to limit yourself - any crafter who does this, pretty much limits themselves to working on white/green quality materials.  Anything higher and you will be missing out on additional pips that you'll want to add into your items.  I'd imagine there will be a market for white/green bars, but I certainly don't want the blacksmith in my guild to be making swords for the our combatants with fewer pips than will max out the useable pip slots for the item, just so they can crank out some really good white/green bars.

Ok - so maybe you've got a lesser trained blacksmith and then someone who is a blacksmith master - the apprentice makes the 50%+ bonus low quality bars and the master uses them to make the final items.  Isn't that kind of a cool system?  It gives everyone a role and gives the best result when you work together.

 

See it this way, with the 50% increase stats anything green / white could surpass a low/middle range blue that will be significantly harder to make, not counting the ''rarity'' of the ressource.

Like I said previously I think the campaign niche market will be high green quality and blue quality. That is all depending on how long the campaign last. I might be wrong, I hope I'm wrong.

This being said, I also what to know what you guys think about this, I think my vision is stopped at basic materials, such as metal bar or anything that requires 5 experiment. Maybe the market for low en crafter is basic mats such as metal bars leaving the more advance crafter to make the best quality component and final assembly. So at one point you will have your minion apprentice blacksmith to make the less fun parts and you make the actual big ticket items. This can also be achieved without that 50% bonus. As stated earlier I am not a big fan of the mechanic the way it is right now.

I still see it as weird tho. I want to be able to make everything at top quality myself.

I used blacksmithing as an exemple since I am aiming for it, but it can be translated to any crafter.


No, you're not suppose to have extra pieces once the armor is assembled.

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After the first year of campaigns it will be the same as any other mmo. The old established guilds will have a lock on the best crafted stuff and crush anyone in the new worlds that are not old and established. 

Uncle Bob has not been solved, he just got once removed. After the first few campaigns it will be business as usual.

Passive training is fine for some aspects, but having the gathering skills and crafting skills gated behind the massive time sink just means the first 1-2 campaigns are fresh and unsullied, after that the multi account trained players will Uncle Bob the poorly made socks out of everything.

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13 minutes ago, srathor said:

After the first year of campaigns it will be the same as any other mmo. The old established guilds will have a lock on the best crafted stuff and crush anyone in the new worlds that are not old and established. 

Uncle Bob has not been solved, he just got once removed. After the first few campaigns it will be business as usual.

Passive training is fine for some aspects, but having the gathering skills and crafting skills gated behind the massive time sink just means the first 1-2 campaigns are fresh and unsullied, after that the multi account trained players will Uncle Bob the poorly made socks out of everything.

I don't agree.  Campaigns will be varied in import rules.  If Uncle Bob leaks into the issue, simply change the import rules to lock out the locked "best stuff".

1 hour ago, Izalea said:

Ok - so maybe you've got a lesser trained blacksmith and then someone who is a blacksmith master - the apprentice makes the 50%+ bonus low quality bars and the master uses them to make the final items.  Isn't that kind of a cool system?  It gives everyone a role and gives the best result when you work together.

 

Actually, it kinda would be a cool system.

I do not think it makes any sort of real world sense that you can end up worse at making something because you're better at a skill. Aesthetically that is horrible, and that is also important.

I was hoping that the way they would keep/make new players more relevant was because of thrall and work bench slots, and the time it takes to craft higher end gear, and how important higher end thralls are to mass production, so much so that no high end player would waste their bench or crafting time building low end gear.  

Not that they literally couldn't, just that it would be poor exchange on their part if there was something, anything else they could be building high end.

 

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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