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pappy

Crafting - Flawed Assembly

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, PopeUrban said:

Now run those numbers about 8000 more times so you have a statistically viable proof.

It's not about statistics, it's about calculated chance math.  It's actually well known and understood what is in the range of expected outcomes on a 2% chance, and landing a 1/OVER THREE HUNDRED MILLION chance event with less than 10,000 players and such a small event sample size  is incredibly far outside of expected outcomes.

You don't need to roll 100,000 marbles around a roulette wheel to calculate the house odds, and you can be sure if someone won on the exact same number on an electronic version of roulette game  5 times in a row (1/69,343,957) which is 4.78X more likely than what Ussiah reported, they would pull the machine and tear apart the code line by line.

One occurance like that described is enough to think there is something wrong. Is it game breaking, well that's arguable. But when the break punishes players by costing them hours of harvesting work, it's worth either a second look, or changing the amount put at risk by questionable RNG behavior.

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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7 minutes ago, KrakkenSmacken said:

It's not about statistics, it's about calculated chance math.  It's actually well known and understood what is in the range of expected outcomes on a 2% chance, and landing a 1/OVER THREE HUNDRED MILLION chance event with less than 10,000 players and such a small event sample size  is incredibly far outside of expected outcomes.

You don't need to roll 100,000 marbles around a roulette wheel to calculate the house odds, and you can be sure if someone won on the exact same number on an electronic version of roulette game  5 times in a row (1/69,343,957) which is 4.78X more likely than what Ussiah reported, they would pull the machine and tear apart the code line by line.

One occurance like that described is enough to think there is something wrong. Is it game breaking, well that's arguable. But when the break punishes players by costing them hours of harvesting work, it's worth either a second look, or changing the amount put at risk by questionable RNG behavior.

One anecdotal occurance of a statistically unlikely streak is not the same thing as a plague of unlikely streaks.

And by and large I haven't seen evidence of a plague of unlikely streaks from here I'm sitting, nor has anyone in my guild.

Obviously check the rng if there's something funky going on in a sustained pattern. Find me a pattern of unlikely events and I'll be just as worried about it as you are.

My subjective experience, of people crafting that numbers exactly the same as the people in this thread reaches a really different conclusion.

So, see this from my perspective here. From where I'm sitting this looks like a mountain being made of a molehill.


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Rub rock on face and say "Yes food is eaten now time for fight"

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, PopeUrban said:

One anecdotal occurance of a statistically unlikely streak is not the same thing as a plague of unlikely streaks.

And by and large I haven't seen evidence of a plague of unlikely streaks from here I'm sitting, nor has anyone in my guild.

Obviously check the rng if there's something funky going on in a sustained pattern. Find me a pattern of unlikely events and I'll be just as worried about it as you are.

My subjective experience, of people crafting that numbers exactly the same as the people in this thread reaches a really different conclusion.

So, see this from my perspective here. From where I'm sitting this looks like a mountain being made of a molehill.

Fair enough, you are entitled to your perspective.

I will point out however that it's enough of a perception mountain that several pre-alpha testers seem willing to give up on the game because of it.  It won't matter a hill of beans if the number and RNG are in fact 100% spot on, if the perception is people are having their time ripped off by it. That has been the perception of many people for as long as I can remember regarding failures on combine. 

It was way worse on the low end stuff when you got nothing, but it's still bad when it "feels" like you get nothing because of the cost of the materials involved. Especially when you already did everything in your power to prevent a bad outcome, and still have that outcome happen because of RNG.

Edited by KrakkenSmacken

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Just now, KrakkenSmacken said:

Fair enough, you are entitled to your perspective.

I will point out however that it's enough of a perception mountain that several pre-alpha testers seem willing to give up on the game because of it.  It won't matter a hill of beans if the number and RNG are in fact 100% spot on, if the perception is people are having their time ripped off by it. That has been the perception of many people for as long as I can remember regarding failures on combine. 

It was way worse on the low end stuff when you got nothing, but it's still bad when if "feels" like you get nothing because of the cost of the materials involved. Especially when you already did everything in your power to prevent a bad outcome, and still have that outcome happen because of RNG.

People could have 2 instances of back to back fails and be willing to leave the game TBH. Especially it it was nice rolls and failed final combines. When dice are mean they're really mean. You could make them less mean when they fail but that's beyond the scope of 'is RNG working and in to "is it too punishing on the small failure chance?"

For someone who self harvests and farms and buys a bunch of stuff and doesn't have a well oiled harvesting machine backing them up, yeah maybe.

Will some people throw the keyboard out the window and make rage posts because something with a clearly signposted chance to fail failed ONE time? Yeah. Some people will.

Is changing the fail penalty the best angle to attack that failure frustration though is the question. I know factories are basically a meme at this point but can mass production and a functioning economy make this a moot point anyway? IDK. That's in ACE's hands. I'm cool with the current fails but I wouldn't be, like, mad if they got less punishing either. Its a matter of economic sinks and overall big metrics from their end I guess.


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Rub rock on face and say "Yes food is eaten now time for fight"

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Ya, but we're not getting disgruntled at seeing something fail one time--even if I disagree with the whole mechanic.

Last night I failed 3 jewelcrafting items in a row, and then found out when it finally worked that the completed item doesn't give the stats anyway.

This isn't the first case of failure streaks. Any day that I craft a lot of stuff I see this. Any day that I just craft something involved I get 1 or 2 failures at 98%, though not streak. I experience this poorly made socks enough myself to think it's hogwash. And this is with having no problems farming mats. Doesn't make it any better to see all those mats go *poof*. 

I see it enough that I found out other people have the same experience, and then after knowing that there is ongoing conversation about it. Like Krakken said, whether it's broken code or just bad code, the perception will be enough to drive people away. Especially when compounded with more grindy aspects that are continuously pushing the fun down, without the quality of life improvements that go in with the complete systems. 

This issue, with all the xp nerfs, with the disc changes coming with warbands, class specs that have been broken for months (fixing abilities to work how they are supposed to now doesn't need to wait til balancing), other classes that are brokenly strong, and if they decide to wipe everything on top of this to fix a exploit that affects only weapons, and in all reality I will probably take a break til alpha. Because this game doesn't respect the time that people put in to test.

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