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Flawed Assembly

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7 hours ago, yianni said:

@thomasblair

i dont know blair math, but what are the chances of getting a flawed twice in a row with 98% success chance?

 

This problem have been repported age ago, i tough its was solved but it seem back and i did experiment it myself this week a couple of time : After a fail  you likely to get another one on the next roll no matter the theorical sucess chance.

According to a couple of day spend at craftting, the succes % given seem to never be accurate.

I noticed that on a white vessel with a theorical 55% sucess rate, the reality is more close from 25%, and 77% theorical mean  around 50% in reality.
The lower your theorical base chance are, the more obivious  the gap from real result and the given number appear.

I dont know how they come to calculate their theorical sucess rate, but its not match with the real result.

Of course i could have just be very unlucky,  but i have be crafting for more than 15 hours over 3 days and never once my real sucess rate have come to match the expected theorical one.
 

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6 hours ago, SAM_BUKA said:

It's actually a 50% chance: you might get it flawed again or you might not. So I'm not surprised at all 😃

 Why are you wasting your time here and not making millions playing poker?


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9 hours ago, SAM_BUKA said:

It's actually a 50% chance: you might get it flawed again or you might not. So I'm not surprised at all 😃

Where are you getting 50% chance from

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41 minutes ago, yianni said:

Where are you getting 50% chance from

Hes joking that since there are only two branches to the output tree (flawed or non-flawed) that its 50/50.  

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