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potatomcwhiskey

Estimating The Final Number - Wager A Beer.

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The following calculations assumes no outside interference and that the current trend will continue based on data from the first few days of the kickstarter.

 

 

If we take Kicktraq's first three days of predicted trends - 14.2. 9.8, 8 [in Millions] and find the difference between those numbers, 4.4million and 1.8million take the ratio of those numbers [2.444 or 0.40909] and reduce the previous days number by the ratio + 100k[Don't ask me how I arrived at that constant, theres a fair bit of other math and its almost bedtime + a bit of quesswork] to get the following days number and repeat that every day for the entire kickstarter we arrive at about 2.1325 million final figure.

 

Now my maths is shaky, and assumes no outside influence affects things positively or negatively.

 

So anyway, my prediction is the final number will be 2-3million. If I had to pick a number, I would lowball it at 2million +/- 100k.

 

Now my question to you, dear readers is: What do you think the final sum of the Kickstarter will be?

 

Ps: I offer to buy a beer for whoever gets the closest prediction first! ;)

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I think this depends largely on how attractive the stretch goals will be. I'd say 2.5M would be possible during the Kickstarter campaign.


"Kansas City Shuffle - When everybody looks right, you go left."

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2,38 mil


Maybe it not about the happy ending. Maybe it's about the story.

RIP Doc Gonzo "to anyone...speak your mind...defend your position...be prepared for an Argument and enjoy the process of the discussion...that's all part of any good Forum experience"

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